Scott holds 4-point lead over Democrat in Florida Senate race: Poll

Incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) holds a 4-point lead over Democratic former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (Fla.) in the Florida Senate race, according to a poll released Wednesday.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey found Scott ahead of Mucarsel-Powell, 48 percent to 44 percent, with 8 percent undecided. When voters who are undecided are asked which candidate they’re leaning toward, Scott’s support rises to 53 percent, while Mucarsel-Powell’s bumps to 47 percent.

The survey also found former President Trump leads Vice President Harris in his home state by 8 points, at 52 percent to 44 percent, with 3 percent undecided. When factoring in voters who are undecided but are asked which way they’re leaning, Trump receives 54 percent, while Harris receives 46 percent.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted in a press release that “Hispanic voters in Florida are split,” with 48 percent backing Harris and 47 percent supporting Trump,. He added that female voters in the state favor Trump by 2 points, 49 percent to 47 percent.

While Democrats face a steep hill to flipping the Sunshine State blue in November, the party is hoping to potentially flip Scott’s Senate seat this cycle.

An aggregate of Florida Senate surveys compiled by Decision Desk HQ shows Scott leading Mucarsel-Powell, 47 percent to 43 percent. The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates Scott’s seat “likely Republican” — rating his reelection race as less competitive than that of Sens. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas), for example.

The survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill was conducted Oct. 18-20 with 860 likely voters surveyed. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.