Cruz, Allred in virtual dead heat in Texas Senate race: Poll

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and Rep. Colin Allred (D) are in a virtual dead heat in the state’s Senate race, according to a poll released Wednesday.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey found Cruz just ahead of Allred by 1 percentage point, 48 percent to 47 percent, with 5 percent undecided. This is even tighter than Emerson’s previous poll of the race from September, when Cruz led by 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent. 

The candidates are roughly even with each other in their net favorability rating, calculated from subtracting the percentage that views them unfavorably from the percentage that view them favorably, with Cruz having a rating of -1 point and Allred having a rating of +2 points. 

Allred continued his improvement with name recognition with only 10 percent saying they aren’t familiar with him, down from 18 percent early last month. Cruz still has the advantage in name recognition, with almost no one saying they aren’t familiar with him.

Part of Allred’s competitiveness in the poll comes from a slight lead among independents, 47 percent to 42 percent. Meanwhile, former President Trump leads Vice President Harris among these voters by 2 points. 

Trump expanded his overall lead over Harris in the state from 5 points in the last poll to 7 points now. 

Texas has been one of two states that Democrats have expressed hope for in a Senate map that otherwise gives Republicans many more possible pickup opportunities. 

The race has appeared to tighten compared to earlier this year, though this poll shows a closer race than some of the other most recent ones have shown. Cruz leads Allred by about 3.5 points in the polling average from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ. 

Harris is set to campaign in Texas with Allred on Friday, when she will also be joined by women who have been affected by abortion bans in states such as Texas. 

The Emerson poll was conducted Oct. 18-21 among 815 likely voters. Its margin of error was 3.4 percentage points.