Cook shifts 20 House districts toward Democrats

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report announced on Friday it was shifting 20 House districts toward Democrats ahead of November’s general elections. 

The districts include Rep. Matt Cartwright’s (D) race in Pennsylvania’s 8th District, which was moved from “toss-up” to “lean Democratic,” as well as GOP Rep. Don Bacon’s (Neb.) race, which is now rated as a “toss-up.”

The latest ratings illustrate the uphill climb Republicans will have to win back the majority. The party previously voiced hopes of picking up 18 seats to regain control. 

The findings also bode well for Democrats looking to defend districts the party flipped in 2018, including Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton’s seat in Virginia, which moved from “likely Democratic” to “solid Democratic.”

Additionally, the report shows shifts favoring Democrats in districts that were once considered Republican strongholds, including GOP Rep. Chip Roy’s race in Texas’s 21st District, which was moved from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.”

The development comes as President Trump’s approval rating amid the coronavirus pandemic continues to plummet nationwide and in a series of key states. The RealClearPolitics polling average showed presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with a lead of 8.6 points over Trump. 

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said on Friday he isn’t alarmed by races Cook is moving away from Republicans, pointing to now-Rep. Mike Garcia’s (R-Calif.) win over Democrat Christy Smith in a special election in May to fill former Rep. Katie Hill’s seat.

“Remember, the special election that we had,” McCarthy told reporters. “So if you want any indication going forward, that’s the best indication.”

Trump’s approval rating has also appeared to have affected down-ballot races. Democrats lead Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 49 percent to 40.7 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight average.

Other ratings changes include Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.), Tom McClintock (R-Calif.), Gil Cisneros (D-Calif.), Jason Crow (D-Colo.), Steve Watkins (R-Kan.), Jim Hagedorn (R-Minn.), Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) and Dan Bishop (R-N.C.).

They also include Reps. Steve Chabot (R-Ohio), Troy Balderson (R-Ohio), Van Taylor (R-Texas), Ron Wright (R-Texas), Roger Williams (R-Texas) and Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.), as well as the open race in Indiana’s 5th District to replace Rep. Susan Brooks (R).

— Juliegrace Brufke contributed