If Biden wins? Peaceful transition of power is not a given

In a recent FOX News interview with Jeanine Pirro, President Donald Trump repeated unsubstantiated claims about voter fraud and claimed Democratic “riots” on election night would be “insurrection.” He added the National Guard could put down an insurrection almost immediately, with or without an invitation from state governors.

In the same interview, Trump also referred to the U.S Marshalls’ shooting of a self-identified Antifa protester, Michael Reinoehl, during an arrest attempt as “retribution.” 

While Reinoehl was accused of killing a member of the right-wing organization Patriot Prayer, Trump’s comments condone extra-judicial killings while also implying that U.S. Marshalls should serve as protection for right-wing militia groups.

These comments represent an escalation in Trump’s willingness to condone violence and challenge the legitimacy of the November elections. Given his escalating rhetoric and refusal to commit to accepting the results of the elections, political actors cannot take for granted a peaceful transition to power. 

Instead, if Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden wins in November, the Biden transition team needs to look at examples of peaceful transitions from authoritarian to democratic regimes.

While Americans generally take a peaceful and stable transition of power for granted, other countries have not always had the same luxury. I saw this first hand when I moved to Ecuador in 2012 to conduct fieldwork for my dissertation: the country had recently seen several contentious transitions as it cycled through eight presidents in 13 years.

To be sure, while Trump has exhibited autocratic tendencies, he is not a dictator and the United States is still a democracy. However, given the president’s refusal to say whether or not he will accept the results of the election, and the potential for post-election chaos, it is worth examining how other countries have handled contentious transitions of power.

A long history of scholarship on dictatorial regimes indicates that dictators will be more likely to cling to power and react violently to popular uprisings if they do not see a clear exit strategy. Unstable non-democratic regimes like those in Haiti, Cameron, the Philippines and Uganda have, at different points in their history, offered ruling despots immunity and a safe exile to prevent or end periods of domestic turmoil and violence.

After the Cold War, countries in Europe and Latin America often transitioned to democracy through a series of pacts made between elites from opposing ends of the political spectrum. The most successful “pacted transition” occurred in Spain, where former fascists accepted a transition to democracy as long as the country remained more conservative government institutions like the monarchy.   

This past June, in this country, the bipartisan Transition Integrity Project assembled a group of over 100 politicians, government officials, campaign leaders, members of the press and academics to participate in a series of “games” designed to simulate different electoral outcomes. 

After running four very different election scenarios, the group reported that “President Trump is likely to contest the result by both legal and extra-legal means, in an attempt to hold onto power.” It warned that “the potential for violent conflict is high.” The group recommended that mainstream politicians and the public begin to prepare for a chaotic transition period mentally.

Since the summer, the possibility for a peaceful transition to power has further deteriorated. The White House continues to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the elections. 

Trump has claimed on multiple occasions that the only way he will lose the election is if it is “rigged; he has refused to commit to accepting the results in November; he has repeatedly encouraged his voters to commit a felony by voting twice. 

The president recently tweeted that due to “new and unprecedented massive amount of unsolicited ballots which will be sent to “voters”, or wherever, this year, the Nov 3rd Election result may NEVER BE ACCURATELY DETERMINED”— promoting Twitter to fact-check Trump’s tweets. 

The threat of White Nationalist terrorism and political violence is possible as Trump defended Kyle Rittenhouse — the 17-year-old who has been charged with murder for shooting two protestors in Kenosha — as acting in self-defense.  

Additionally, a new whistleblower report alleges that senior officials at the Department of Homeland Security altered intelligence reports to match the president’s overblown rhetoric on Antifa and underplay the security threats posed by white nationalist groups. 

All of this creates a real danger that heavily armed White Nationalist groups will view a legitimate Biden victory — an outcome that 538 projects has a 76 percent chance of happening — as completely fake and illegitimate. 

Trump faces the real possibility of criminal charges when he leaves office as he and his associates are currently subject to over a dozen investigations. Many investigations — including allegations of bank fraud, tax fraud, insurance fraud and violations of campaign finance law — are taking place in New York, where presidential pardon powers do not apply.

These numerous possibilities for criminal charges give Trump a strong incentive to cast doubts on the legitimacy of the elections or rally white nationalist supporters to violence if it looks as if he has lost. In the event of a Biden victory, the transition team should have a plan for encouraging Trump to resign early, formally recognize the results of the election and abstain from further political activities. 

Such a plan might involve negotiating a potential immunity deal.

It would be difficult for Trump to sustain a challenge to the legitimacy of the elections in the face of an apparent loss, particularly if several moderate Republican state governors supported Biden’s claims, especially given the important role that state governments play in our electoral process. 

A Biden transition team can consider what they could offer Republican state governors — a comprehensive state COVID bailout package, an older and more moderate supreme court pick, key cabinet posts for moderate Republicans, or major Green New Deal projects in red states — that would encourage them to lend legitimacy to a Biden victory.

Nothing about the November elections will be normal. 

In the event of a Democratic victory and a Trump defeat, the Biden team, state officials, and the public need to be prepared for a rocky transition. Biden and the Democrats need to decide what compromises they are willing to make to ensure a smooth transition.

Katie Scofield has a Ph.D. in political science from Indiana University, with a focus on comparative constitutional law. She was awarded a Fulbright grant to study the Ecuadorian constitution and its treatment of human rights and teaches government at Blinn College in Texas.