Trump and Biden’s plans would both add to the debt, analysis finds

Campaign plans from President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden would each add about $5 trillion to the debt over a decade, according to an analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) released Wednesday.

Under the budget watchdog’s central estimates, Trump’s plan would add $4.95 trillion to the debt while Biden’s would increase the debt by $5.6 trillion. The estimates exclude spending proposals aimed at addressing the coronavirus pandemic and related economic downturn.

“The country’s large and growing national debt threatens to slow economic growth, constrain the choices available to future policymakers, and is ultimately unsustainable,” CRFB said. “Yet neither presidential candidate has a plan to address the growth in debt. In fact, we find both candidates’ plans are likely to increase the debt.”

Biden has released detailed proposals in areas including education, health care, infrastructure and taxes, while Trump has released general bullet points about his second-term agenda. CRFB interpreted Trump’s bullet points based by looking at budget proposals, previous statements and more detailed proposals from others.

Because the candidates’ proposals were often unclear, CRFB released low-cost, central and high-cost estimates of Trump’s and Biden’s plans. The group found that Trump’s plans could increase the debt by $700 billion to $6.85 trillion over 10 years, while Biden’s plans could have an impact on the debt that ranges from a $150 billion reduction to an $8.3 trillion increase.

CRFB’s central estimate of Trump’s agenda found that the president’s call for cutting prescription drug prices and ending surprise billing would produce savings of $150 billion over 10 years, but those savings would be dwarfed by his plans to increase spending in other areas.

The watchdog group estimated that Trump’s education and child care agenda would cost $150 billion, and that his plans for spending on infrastructure, space and supporting Black-owned businesses would cost $2.7 trillion. Trump’s tax plans, which include making the individual provisions in his 2017 law permanent, would cost a total of $1.7 trillion, CRFB said.

Trump’s national security and immigration plans would on net cost $300 billion, with his plans on immigration and ending wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East producing savings that are less than the total costs of his plans to increase the defense budget and spending on veterans.

CRFB found in its central estimate that Biden would increase spending by about $2.7 trillion on child care and education, and most of this increase would come from his higher education plans. The former vice president would spend $2.05 trillion on health care and long-term care, with much of this cost coming from his plans to expand health-insurance coverage.

Biden’s plans to expand Social Security, Supplemental Security Income and tax breaks for older Americans would cost $1.15 trillion. His plans in other domestic spending areas, including infrastructure and housing, would cost $4.45 trillion, according to CRFB’s central estimates.

Biden’s spending plans would be partially offset by $750 billion in savings from his plans to end wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East and to reform the immigration system, and by $4.3 trillion in revenue generated by his plans to raise taxes on wealthy individuals and corporations, CRFB said.