Democrats lead in 3 of 4 Iowa House races: poll

Democrats lead in races for three of Iowa’s four congressional districts, according to Monmouth University polling released Thursday.

Iowa was a key state for Republicans to make a dent to the Democratic majority in the House, but with less than two weeks to go before Election Day, three Democrats in seats targeted by the GOP look to be in decent shape.

The poll results could also be good news for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, who is hoping to turn Iowa blue after President Trump won it in 2016. Polls show a tight race between the two in Iowa.

In the state’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D), first elected in 2018, leads state Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) by 8 points, 52 percent to 44 percent, among registered voters. Among likely voters in a high turnout scenario, Finkenauer leads 54 percent to 44 percent.

In Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District, where Rep. David Loebsack (D) is retiring, Democratic candidate Rita Hart leads Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks 49 percent to 43 percent among registered voters and 51 percent to 42 percent among likely voters. Miller-Meeks led 48 percent to 44 percent in an August poll.

In the state’s 3rd Congressional District, first-term Rep. Cindy Axne (D) leads former Rep. David Young (R), whom she unseated in 2018, 52 percent to 43 percent among registered voters. Among likely voters, she leads 53 percent to 42 percent.

In the state’s 4th District, state Sen. Randy Feenstra (R) leads Democratic candidate J.D. Scholten 48 percent to 42 percent. Among high turnout likely voters, Feenstra leads 48 percent to 43 percent. Feenstra defeated incumbent Rep. Steve King (R) earlier this year in a GOP primary after the Republican establishment largely turned on King due to his history of inflammatory comments, including questioning in 2019 why the term “white nationalist” had negative associations.

The King district is one that the GOP was favored to win, particularly if King was not the GOP candidate.

“Democrats appear to be on track to retain the three House seats they currently hold and are making a run in a deep red district,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement.

Trump won the state by about 10 points in 2016, but the RealClearPolitics average shows Biden with a razor-thin 0.8-point lead.

In the Senate race, Democratic challenger Teresa Greenfield leads Sen. Joni Ernst (R) by 1.8 points in the RealClearPolitics average.