Poll: Biden leads by 5 points in Florida

A new poll finds Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leading President Trump by 5 points among registered voters in Florida, a pivotal battleground state the president can’t afford to lose if he hopes to secure a second term. 

The latest survey from Monmouth University Poll finds Biden at 50 percent and Trump at 45 percent among the largest pool of registered voters.

Monmouth also tested likely voters with different turnout scenarios.

Among likely voters in a high turnout election, Biden leads by 6 points. In a low turnout scenario, Biden’s lead shrinks to 4 points. Tens of millions of people have already voted across the country and experts expect the high turnout will continue through Election Day. 

Biden leads by less than 1 point in Florida in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. An NBC-Marist College poll released earlier Thursday found Biden leading by 4 points among likely Florida voters.

The state has been decided by 1 point or less in the past two elections, and Biden and Trump are both holding events there on Thursday. 

The gender gap has widened significantly in the Monmouth poll.

Biden leads by 23 points among women, compared to Trump’s 15-point advantage among men. Last month, Biden led by 12 points among women and Trump led by 3 points among men.

Biden leads by 26 points among Latino voters, nearly identical to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margin. Trump leads by 14 points among whites, down significantly from his 32-point margin in 2016. 

“Biden appears to be holding on to enough support among Latino voters and is potentially building a cushion with younger voters overall,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Trump needs to get a larger share of his base out to vote on Election Day in order to repeat his 2016 victory.” 

Among seniors, a big demographic in Florida, Trump leads Biden by 4 points. Biden makes up ground with big leads among younger voters.

Monmouth found that nearly 60 percent of voters have already cast their ballots, with Biden leading by 20 points among those who have already voted. Among those who have yet to vote, Trump leads by 15 points. 

Despite Biden’s lead in the poll, 49 percent of Floridians expect Trump will win the state, compared to 41 percent who expect Biden will win. 

The Monmouth University survey of 509 registered voters in Florida was conducted between Oct. 24 and Oct. 28 and has a 4.4-percentage-point margin of error.