A waiting game

A handful of Democratic House members are playing the wait-and-see game before they make a decision about launching a bid for the Senate.

The choice of whether to abandon a safe House seat for a chance to join the exclusive set of 100 senators is always a difficult one. Yet for some Democrats in the lower chamber, there is a new wrinkle this year.

Reps. Steve Israel (N.Y.), Carolyn McCarthy (N.Y.), José Serrano (N.Y.), Jerrold Nadler (N.Y.), Carolyn Maloney (N.Y.), Jan Schakowsky (Ill.), Jesse Jackson Jr. (Ill.) and perhaps others have to decide in coming months whether to take on a Democratic incumbent in a primary.

The New York Democrats are watching Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s (D-N.Y.) every move, as well as monitoring her poll numbers. Gillbrand, a former House member, was selected in January to replace Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D).

Some Democrats believe she is too conservative. But Gillibrand is not voting as a senator the same way she voted when she represented her conservative-leaning House district.

She voted in February against a gun rights amendment relating to firearms in the nation’s capital. The amendment passed, 62-36, and is now attached to the Senate D.C. voting rights bill.

That vote was an about-face from the position Gillibrand took in the House, when she backed a 2007 bill introduced by Rep. Mike Ross (D-Ark.) that sought to “restore Second Amendment rights in the District of Columbia.”

Taking on Gillibrand would be an uphill battle, especially because she has been embraced by Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), one of the smartest campaign tacticians in Congress.

Illinois Democrats are in a different position. Unlike Gillibrand, Sen. Roland Burris (D) is not the favorite to win the 2010 Illinois election.

The Illinois state treasurer, Alexi Giannoulias (D), who is close friends with Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), has jumped into the race and raised an impressive $1.1 million in just one month.

Still, Democratic House members from Illinois are not scared off by Giannoulias and are mulling their options.
Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) is considering running in a primary against Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.).

Specter already has a primary opponent in Joe Torsella, former deputy mayor of Philadelphia. But the incumbent senator would be a heavy favorite in that two-way race.

Specter recently said he wants Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) to defeat Al Franken (D) in their never-ending race, then quickly backtracked.

That kind of statement will only increase the chances that Sestak gets in, because it riles the Democrats’ liberal base.

But for now, Sestak — like many others in the House — is waiting and watching.