Story at a glance
- A new study from a team of researchers in Israel shows how the U.K. variant entered the population.
- The team found that the U.K. variant is about 45 percent more transmissible than the original coronavirus strain.
- Frequent testing and vaccination prevented the U.K. variant from spreading widely in care homes for the elderly.
A variant of the coronavirus, named B.1.1.7, emerged in the U.K. in Dec. 2020. Since then, it has spread around the world and quickly become the dominant strain in many areas. A research team looked into what happened when the variant arrived in Israel, a country that has been successful in rolling out vaccinations especially in its older population.
The researchers analysed 300,000 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests from a COVID-19 testing lab in Israel. Publishing their findings in the journal Cell Reports Medicine, the researchers found that in the six weeks from Dec. 24, 2020 to February 2021, the U.K. variant went from being linked to 5 percent of cases to 90 percent.
The team calculated the R0 value, which represents how many new infections occur from one infection, and compared it to the value for the original strain of the coronavirus.
“We posed the question: How many people, on the average, contract the disease from every person who has either variant?” said Ariel Munitz at the Sackler Faculty of Medicine in a press release. “We found that the British variant is 45%…more contagious.”
The researchers write in the paper that it only took a little more than three weeks for the U.K. variant to become the dominant strain in Israel. They also found that vaccination prevents the spread of this variant into the older adult population.
This bodes well for people who have been vaccinated. The study suggests that vaccination can slow the spread of not only the original coronavirus but also the U.K. variant.
But, this also gives us an idea of what we are up against with the new variants. If the U.K. variant is truly 45 percent more transmissible, that means one case may lead to many more cases when compared to the original strain. It means that it could get out and infect people quicker and before the cases are caught, which would explain how the U.K. variant has been able to become the dominant strain in such a short period of time.
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The researchers write in the paper that frequent testing in the care homes of older people did work to help monitor the spread of the virus.
“It is important to emphasize: the relatively low viral load was found in retirement homes despite the fact that the British variant had already begun to spread in all populations,” said Munitz. “Consequently, we show that monitoring retirement homes, together with vaccination that gives precedence to vulnerable populations, prevent illness and mortality.”
Dan Yemin at the Laboratory for Epidemic Modeling and Analysis at the Department of Industrial Engineering, all at Tel Aviv University said in the press release, “Our message to the world is that if with our problematic starting point a distinct decline was identified, other Western countries can certainly expect the curve to break – despite the high contagion of the British variant – with a dramatic drop in severe cases following the vaccination of 50% of the older population, alongside targeted testing at risk epicenters.”
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