When will SpaceX’s Starship fly to space?

An unmistakable fact of SpaceX’s Starship, stacked atop the Superheavy rocket, is its immensity. The rocket ship is a gleaming, stainless-steel tower the height of a skyscraper at SpaceX’s South Texas Starbase facility. Its purpose is to deliver 100 metric tons of people and material anywhere in the solar system, either to Earth orbit or to the moon and Mars with refueling. When it flies, it will revolutionize the art and science of space travel just as the ocean-going caravel did sea travel centuries ago.

Recently, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk gave a presentation about the Starship to a crowd at the Starbase with the launch vehicle as a backdrop.

Of main interest, Musk says he will be able to conduct the first orbital test of the Starship this year, pending an environmental approval that he expects to happen in March. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has announced that the report has been delayed to March 28.

Musk does have a contingency plan to move operations to Florida if the regulators decide to throw some roadblocks in his way — but a move to Florida would delay the development of Starship by six to eight months. NASA, which is depending on it to land astronauts on the moon, would not be too pleased either.

Certain parties would not be displeased if the Starship were to be delayed somewhat. Politico reports that SpaceX’s competitors are in a panic over the implications of an operational Starship. It is bad enough, from their standpoint, that the SpaceX Falcon 9 has greatly reduced the cost of launching things and people into space. The Starship, according to Musk, will be able to take an absurd amount of material and people, first into low-Earth orbit, then to the moon and Mars, for a few tens of millions of dollars a launch. Beyond competition at home, Russia and China, which have their own space ambitions, are also likely watching closely.

In any case, whether the Starship/Superheavy rocket is approved for launches from Texas or has to move to Florida, the first orbital test will see the Superheavy splash down in the ocean near the launch site, and the Starship will land in the ocean near Hawaii. Subsequent launches will no doubt test the two stages’ ability to land intact back at the spaceport launch site.

Once the Starship proves its ability to launch, conduct orbital operations and then land safely, the possibilities are almost endless. SpaceX already has plans for the rocket to launch Starlink satellites, hundreds at a time rather than a few dozen that the Falcon 9 can deliver. The Starship could deliver a space telescope many times the size and capabilities of the Hubble or a complete commercial space station.

Billionaire Jared Isaacman, who already flew with a group on SpaceX’s Crewed Dragon, now plans a series of flights culminating in the first crewed Starship. Farther in the future, billionaire Yusaku Maezawa still plans to take a group of artists on a Starship on an epic voyage around the moon.

A version of the Starship has already been chosen to be the Human Landing System that will deliver astronauts to the lunar surface for the first time in decades. SpaceX has contracted to do one uncrewed test in advance of the human landing, currently scheduled to take place in 2025.

While NASA plans only one Artemis mission per year, SpaceX may be able to land material and people on the moon multiple times a year. Everything depends on whether the company can master rapid launch, landing and turnaround, as well as reliable refueling in low-Earth orbit. If SpaceX can establish an Earth-to-moon transportation system on their own, NASA’s Orion/Space Launch System would become obsolete in short order.

Musk’s ultimate goal is to establish a city on Mars. He has suggested that he will need to transport a million tons of material across interplanetary gulfs, not to speak of those people who propose to become Mars colonists, to make that happen. If the Starship/Superheavy system can do that, the launch vehicle will have changed the course of history. Humankind truly will become an interplanetary civilization.

Mark R. Whittington is the author of space exploration studies “Why is It So Hard to Go Back to the Moon?” as well as “The Moon, Mars and Beyond,” and “Why is America Going Back to the Moon?” He blogs at Curmudgeons Corner.