District by district – Mississippi

MISSISSIPPI-01

Blue Dog Democrat behind in GOP-leaning district

Blue Dog Democratic Rep. Travis Childers (Miss.) is in a tight race,
trailing his Republican challenger by five points, 39 percent to 44,
with 12 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010
Midterm Election Poll.

{mosads}Childers’s party ties could hurt him in this district John McCain
won by 24 points in 2008. Only 35 percent approve of the job President
Obama is doing, while 63 percent disapprove. And 71 percent said the
president will be an important factor when they go to the ballot box.

Plus,
59 percent of voters said the Democratic leadership in Congress was to
the left of them, and only 21 percent described the leadership as
“about where you are.”

Childers seems to acknowledge that reality. In a recent campaign ad,
he notes he voted against Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) 267 times. He
also voted against healthcare reform legislation.

Meanwhile, 39 percent of voters couldn’t come up with a compelling reason to vote for Democrats in November.

Republican Alan Nunnelee is winning independent voters with 48
percent of their support. He is also winning male voters and older
voters. Childers leads among women and younger voters.

Childers first won the seat in a special election, after Roger
Wicker was appointed to the Senate. Childers won reelection easily in
2008 — by 10 points.

Party spending has been heavy in this race.

The NRCC has spent about $667,000 in independent expenditures, while the DCCC has spent around $505,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 9-17. The
survey consisted of 603 phone interviews among likely voters and has a
margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.