Who won? We’ll know by Christmas

Democrats have claimed majorities in the House and Senate, but control of the Senate and the size the Democratic House majority are not likely to be settled before next week and possibly not until December.

Democrats have claimed majorities in the House and Senate, but control of the Senate and the size the Democratic House majority are not likely to be settled before next week and possibly not until December.

A vote recount in the Virginia Senate race could swing the upper chamber to either party, and recounts in six House races could add four seats to the Democratic House majority, or trim the GOP House deficit by two seats. Recounts are expected in Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, North Carolina and Wyoming.

The results of statewide canvassing in Virginia could determine whether Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) moves ahead of opponent Jim Webb (D), or at least close enough to demand a recount of the vote. Allen’s fate could allow Republicans to keep the Senate with a 50-50 split (plus Vice President Dick Cheney’s deciding vote) or give Democrats a one-seat majority.

Democratic Senatorial Committee Chairman (DSCC) Charles Schumer (N.Y.) called for Allen to “do the right and gentlemanly thing to do and declare Jim Webb the winner right now.” He cited examples set by Republican Sens. John Ensign (Nev.) and John Thune (S.D.), who conceded narrow defeats in 1998 and 2002, respectively, and later won election. Schumer also urged President Bush to make a goodwill gesture toward Democratic leaders by persuading Allen to concede.

Webb has already claimed the mantle of “Senator-elect.” But Allen’s campaign showed no sign of surrender. Ed Gillespie, a senior adviser, said canvassing is “required by law” and declared it is “important that we respect the voters of Virginia.”

Allen’s advisers have noted that the canvassing effort has already revealed that Webb improperly received credit for about 1,400 votes in Stafford County. They also said Allen may have gained 500 votes in another precinct.

Allen has a team of more than 100 people in the canvassing effort in which election officials are reconfirming the tallies from election night. One Allen aide said that allies are present at 130 canvassing sites.

Webb led Allen by about 7,000 votes yesterday afternoon, according to news reports.

Gillespie said Virginia’s counties have until Nov. 14 to count outstanding votes, including absentee and provisional ballots. The Virginia State Board of Elections will certify the results on Nov. 27 and only then may Allen ask for a recount.

He may not request a recount unless he trails by less than one percent of the total votes cast, according to guidelines posted online by the Virginia elections board. If he trails by less than half of one percent, the state would pay for the recount.

Jan Baran, a prominent GOP lawyer who served as special counsel to the Board of Elections during a statewide recount of an attorney-general race last year, said that if losing by less than one percent, Allen could file a petition for a recount with a Richmond-based circuit court.

But a recount might not make much of a difference, Baran added, noting that last year’s recount resulted in a 37-vote swing.

One Senate GOP aide cited the same figure as a reason that Allen might not call for a recount unless the canvassing effort cut Webb’s lead dramatically.

Virginia has the highest profile among congressional races that remain undecided.

House GOP officials expect recounts in Connecticut’s 2nd and Georgia’s 12th congressional districts. House Democratic officials expect recounts in Florida, New Mexico, North Carolina and Wyoming.

“We’re going to make sure all the votes get counted,” said Bill Burton, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Steve Hudson, a spokesman for Democrat Larry Kissell, who was losing to GOP Rep. Robin Hayes by fewer than 500 votes in North Carolina’s 8th  District, said his boss had cut that lead by more than 100 as provisional ballots were counted.

“Concerned Americans are calling in and offering their prayers and support while the final votes are tallied,” said Kissell in a statement. “The one thing that is crystal clear is that the best election lawyers in America are on their way to join our local legal team to assist the fight in making sure that all the votes are counted.”

In Georgia, Clelia Davis, a spokeswoman for the state Republican Party, said provisional ballots are still being counted in the 12th district, where Republican Max Burns is narrowly behind freshman Democratic Rep. John Barrow.

Davis said some voting machines failed to work properly.

In Florida, Democrats hope a recount could put Christine Jennings past Vern Buchanan in the open 13th District vacated by retiring Rep. Katherine Harris (R).

The potential recounts may allow Republicans to win two seats where Democrats are now ahead and Democrats to capture four seats where Republicans lead.

Kyle DeBeer, a Democratic party official in Wyoming, said the results of that state’s House race will not be certified until Nov. 15, postponing an expected recount request until next week.

A seventh House race, the contest between Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Wash.) and Democrat Darcy Burner, is also not yet decided. Almost two-thirds of the district’s precincts remain to be tallied because many people there have voted by mail. It may take several more days for officials to count the ballots.