Senate retirements mostly good news for GOP in 2012 landscape

With three retirements in just the past two weeks, the 2012 Senate
landscape is quickly starting to take shape, and so far it’s mostly
welcome news for Republicans aiming to take back the Senate majority
next year.

The GOP needs to pick up just four seats in 2012 for control of the
upper chamber and the party has a total of 23 targets to choose from,
while only needing to defend 10 of its own seats.

{mosads}The best news so far for the GOP — the decision of Sen. Kent Conrad
(D-N.D.), who announced his retirement just one day before Sen. Joe
Lieberman (I-Conn.) said he wouldn’t seek reelection in 2012.

Conrad’s retirement just about hands Republicans a Senate seat in
North Dakota next year — a state where the GOP scored two big wins in
2010 and Democrats don’t have much of a bench to speak of.

“North Dakota was very good news for Senate Republicans,” said Brian
Walsh, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who
added that the committee fully expects more Democrats to bow out
before 2012.

Last week, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) began the string of
Senate retirements ahead of a cycle that could be littered with them.
The question that looms when the Senate returns for business next week: Who’s next?

A handful of other Democratic senators could also opt for retirement
in 2012, decisions that, in most cases, would be a boon for GOP hopes
of regaining the majority next year.

Sens. Jim Webb (D-Va.) and Herb Kohl (D-Wisc.) are two of the biggest
names still outstanding. While Republicans are poised to contest both
of those seats in 2012 regardless of whether the incumbents decide to
run again, open seat races would likely favor the GOP in both states.

All indications are that former Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) wants a
rematch with Webb, setting up a hotly contested general election race. But should Webb decide not to run again, Virginia Democrats
would be scrambling to find an alternative with the clear advantage
shifting to the GOP.

In Wisconsin, an open seat would likely attract a stronger GOP field,
potentially increasingly the likelihood of a campaign from someone
like Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.).

Another potential question mark for Democrats is Sen. Jeff Bingaman
(D-N.M.). If he decides to bow out, it makes that seat more
competitive, as well, with former Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M.) more
likely to get in.

In Nebraska, Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) sounds like he’s running in
2012, but there’s speculation the Democrat might eventually decide to
retire rather than face a bruising battle. Nelson faces a backlash
over his support of healthcare and already has a viable opponent in
the conservative-leaning state.

Similarly, Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii) might contemplate retirement
if a strong GOP challenge emerged. Former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle (R)
is a rumored candidate and her entrance into the race could make Akaka
rethink 2012, potentially setting up a more competitive open seat
contest there.

Along with the potential for a handful of open seat races that could
lean the GOP’s way, Republicans already have a fairly sizable target
list of incumbents in conservative-leaning states.

“Democratic senators in some of these states like Jon Tester (Mont.),
Claire McCaskill (Mo.), and Joe Manchin (W.Va.) are all to the left of
voters there,” said Walsh.

This week’s retirements weren’t all bad news for Democrats.
Lieberman’s decision was less welcome news for the GOP and doesn’t
shift the overall Senate calculus in the party’s direction.

Even though he caucuses with Democrats, a contested three-way race in
2012 with Lieberman running as an independent likely would have given
the GOP its best shot at capturing the seat.

Now, two strong candidates have already jumped into the race to
succeed Lieberman — Rep. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and former Secretary
of State Susan Bysiewicz (D) — leaving Democrats confident about
their chances in a presidential year.

National Democrats rightly caution that the cycle has barely begun and
that even in states like Texas and North Dakota, where the
conventional wisdom suggests the GOP will be heavily favored,
unpredictable primaries could significantly alter the playing field
before the fall of 2012.

“Republican primaries cost them Senate seats last cycle and there’s no
question it will happen again,” said Eric Schultz, spokesman for the
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.”It’s far too early for
Republicans to declare any victories. Just ask Mike Castle.”

Democrats are also bullish on their chances in Massachusetts, where
Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) is up next year, and in Nevada, which is
one state where it’s safe to say the GOP wouldn’t mind seeing a
Republican retirement. For now, Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) is forging
ahead with a reelection bid, despite woeful poll numbers.

Rapid developments in Texas, Connecticut and North Dakota aside, it’s
still only January, meaning it’s far too early to give either party a
definitive edge.

The dominant narrative at this point last cycle: the likelihood that
Democrats would widen their Senate majority thanks to highly-touted
2010 recruits like Robin Carnahan (Mo.) and Lee Fisher (Ohio).