CAMPAIGN OVERNIGHT: Tuesday House primaries put pressure on Republicans

The pressure’s on Republicans tomorrow night, as the second-to-last round of primaries will decide whether they have a shot at a handful of Democratic-held seats once considered top targets.

The party faces its biggest potential disappointment in Arizona’s 1st District, where Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) is a top GOP target but a three-way Republican primary between state Speaker Andy Tobin, rancher Gary Kiehne and state Rep. Adam Kwasman has left each of the potential candidates flawed and cash-poor heading into the general. Though Tobin remains the establishment pick in the race, it’s unclear whether a last-minute cash infusion from outside groups can push him over the edge — and even then, his recent suggestion that immigrant children crossing the southern border could be carrying Ebola is sure to provide Democrats easy fodder for attacks in the general.

{mosads}In Florida’s 26th District, Republican Carlos Curbelo, seen as the strongest challenger for embattled Rep. Joe Garcia (D), is the favorite for the nomination. But he’s facing off with former Rep. David Rivera (R) in the primary, and despite fresh headlines surrounding Rivera’s campaign-finance scandal, some speculate he could siphon off Hispanic voters displeased with Curbelo. Democrats will be keeping an eye on the margin there to see if Curbelo’s got the support to put up the fight Republicans are pledging this fall.

Republicans will also be watching the fight in Arizona’s 9th District, where Air Force veteran Wendy Rogers and former NFL player Andrew Walter are vying for the chance to take on Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D), though neither of the potential GOP nominees are considered particularly strong challengers. The same is true of the primary battle in Florida’s 18th District, where Rep. Patrick Murphy’s (D) strong fundraising abilities largely dissuaded any strong challengers from entering the race, though the top possible contender, state Rep. Carl Domino, is expected to nab the GOP nomination.

At the end of the night, however, there’s a chance Republicans could be left mulling over missed opportunities instead of pick-up opportunities this fall.

SENATE SHOWDOWN

KY-SEN (MCCONNELL): Democrats hammered Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on the prospect of another government shutdown with new digital ads from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, both riffing off McConnell’s proclaimed strategy in a recent interview to attach policy riders to must-pass spending bills to force President Obama to take a stance on them if Republicans take over the Senate this fall.


Pro-McConnell group Kentucky Opportunity Coalition launched a new radio ad Monday tying Grimes to President Obama, calling her a “rubber stamp for Obama’s agenda,” pointing to her support for his reelection campaign.

NM-SEN (UDALL): The New Mexico Republican Party features a shot of the masked man who killed American photojournalist James Foley in a new Web video attacking Sen. Tom Udall (D) on foreign policy. The video has Foley cropped out of the shot of the man, which only appears briefly, one of a handful of images of disorder occurring abroad interspersed with shots of President Obama golfing at home — a juxtaposition meant to raise questions about the president’s foreign policy, and Udall’s support of such policies. It touts Udall’s long-shot Republican challenger, Allen Weh, at the end.

CO-SEN (UDALL): New Jersey Democratic Sen. Cory Booker campaigned for Sen. Mark Udall (D) this weekend, slamming his GOP opponent, Rep. Cory Gardner, as a candidate who “represents the wingnuts.”

On Monday, Udall went up with a joint buy with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on a new Spanish-language ad that accuses Gardner of voting to cut housing vouchers for veterans.

NC-SEN (HAGAN): Crossroads GPS rolled out a new ad Monday attacking Sen. Kay Hagan (N.C.) for allegedly supporting an increase to the retirement age, among other things, a claim based on Hagan’s support for the Simpson-Bowles debt-reduction plan, which has drawn bipartisan support. Despite criticizing him last week for not doing enough to reform the VA, Hagan will reportedly greet the president on the tarmac when he arrives in the state Tuesday.

IA-SEN (OPEN): Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley has been attacking Republican Joni Ernst on student loans and college affordability, and Democrats on Monday accused her of hypocrisy for calling for the privatization of student loans while having used government loans to pay for her own education.

Ernst also said in an interview that the minimum wage should be set at the state, rather than federal, level.

NH-SEN (SHAHEEN): Democrats are firing on Republican Scott Brown for his lucrative role on the board of directors of Kadant, a Massachusetts-based company that, per a report in the Nashua Telegraph, outsourced jobs.

Brown, running for Senate in New Hampshire, also faced criticism from a green group for expressing doubts over whether climate change is caused by human activities during a debate this weekend, which the group called a flip-flop, pointing to his comments on the subject during his 2012 reelection fight in Massachusetts.

And he drew scrutiny for suggesting he’d be open to paying ransom to terrorists in exchange for American hostages, a position that puts him at odds with longstanding U.S. policy and potentially some of his own GOP backers.

LA-SEN (LANDRIEU): Tea Party candidate Rob Maness could be a spoiler not just for Republicans’ chances against Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) but ultimately for their shot at taking back the Senate this fall. The Senate Conservatives Fund released a new poll on Monday showing Maness surging, taking 16 percent of the vote, to establishment pick Rep. Bill Cassidy’s 32 percent and Landrieu’s 43 percent support, but it remains to be seen whether the group will spend for him.

Meanwhile, a new ad from an outside group charges Landrieu “lives like a celebrity” on taxpayer money, pointing to her use of charter planes. And the senator sparked a rift between the Oklahoma delegation and the state’s Chamber of Commerce with a fundraiser slated to held for her by the head of the Tulsa Chamber of Commerce this week.

MN-SEN (FRANKEN): A new poll conducted by SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV gives Sen. Al Franken (D) 51 percent support to Republican Mike McFadden’s 42 percent support among likely voters. Franken’s approval rating has gone up even as President Obama remains deeply underwater with voters there.

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

WV-03 (RAHALL): A Crossroads GPS ad released Monday looks to tie Rep. Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.) to “Obama’s war on coal” by saying Rahall voted for a carbon tax. Rahall is running against Republican state Sen. Evan Jenkins.

CA-21 (VALADAO): The U.S. Chamber of Commerce awarded freshman Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) its Spirit of Enterprise award Monday morning, honoring one of the few House Republicans who went to bat for the Chamber on immigration reform. Valadao is locked in a tight reelection battle with former Senate staffer Amanda Renteria (D).

VA-10 (OPEN): Ann Romney has joined a chorus of Republicans supporting Virginia Republican House candidate Barbara Comstock after her Democratic opponent, John Foust, questioned whether Comstock “even had a real job.” On Monday, the former Massachusetts first lady tweeted, “I stand with my friend @BarbaraComstock for Congress — lawyer, businesswoman, public servant, Mom — all ‘real jobs.’ ”

TN-04 (DESJARLAIS): Rep. Scott DesJarlais’s (R-Tenn.) primary challenger, state Sen. Jim Tracy, decided against a challenge to the primary results and conceded to the incumbent on Monday, two weeks after the congressman finished ahead by just 38 votes.

2016 WATCH

SANDERS: Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.), an independent who caucuses with Democrats, is planning a trip next month to early-caucus state Iowa, at the same time Hillary Clinton will be stumping in the battleground state. Sanders has expressed interest in running for president, if only, he said, to ensure there’s a liberal voice in the debate.

PERRY: A Clinton White House alumnus is joining Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s legal team. Mark Fabiani, who also worked on former Vice President Al Gore’s 2000 presidential campaign and helped write a book in 2012 about crisis management and damage control, will help Perry’s defense, the governor’s office announced Monday.

RYAN: Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) said Hillary Clinton is “very beatable” because a 2016 win by the former secretary of State would essentially be a continuation of the Obama administration. “She’s very formidable. She’ll raise a lot money, she has a lot of name ID,” Ryan told the Tampa Bay Times on Sunday during an event to promote his new book. “But I think Hillary Clinton is very beatable because a Hillary Clinton presidency is basically the same thing as an Obama third term. I don’t think she’ll be able to shake that.”

WARREN: Ready for Warren, the super-PAC urging Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) to run for president, said Monday it would continue to plow “full steam ahead” after the senator formally disavowed the group in a letter Friday to the Federal Election Commission.

CHRISTIE: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) was in Chicago on Monday stumping for GOP gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner, who didn’t attend the event. He also appeared at an event for Rep. Rodney Davis (R) and raised money for the Republican Governors Association.

A major GOP donor and Christie supporter, Home Depot co-founder Kenneth Langone, said he believes Christie will run for president — and if he does, Christie’s the “guy who can win” in 2016.

WALKER: Newly unsealed court documents show that a campaign consultant for Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) emailed a Walker adviser saying the governor was encouraging outside groups and individuals to invest in the Wisconsin Club for Growth and that he wanted the pro-Walker group to coordinate campaign themes, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

CLINTON: In a potential 2016 Democratic primary contest, Hillary Clinton is up by 38 percentage points — 55 to 17 percent — over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) among likely Democratic voters in Warren’s home state, according to a new poll from Suffolk University and the Boston Herald.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“That Seth Meyers is hosting the Emmy Awards is a total joke. He is very awkward with almost no talent. Marbles in his mouth!”

—A tweet from Donald Trump lambasting comedian Seth Meyers, who mocked Trump’s presidential aspirations when he hosted the White House Correspondents’ dinner in 2011