Poll: Dems lead Ohio, Fla. Senate races

Democratic candidates hold early leads in Senate races in battleground states Florida and Ohio, while Republicans have the advantage in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Monday.

The trio of swing states will be critical in determining whether Democrats reclaim a majority in the Senate in 2016 after losing it last fall.

In Ohio, former Gov. Ted Strickland (D) has a 46 percent to 40 percent lead over Sen. Rob Portman (R), according to the poll.

The Ohio race is shaping up to be one of the closest and most hotly contested of the cycle. Both candidates are popular at home.

{mosads}Forty-three percent said they have a favorable view of Portman, against 21 percent who said they view him negatively. Strickland’s favorability rating is similarly strong, with 47 percent viewing him positively against 29 percent negatively.

President Obama could be a drag Strickland, with 56 percent in Ohio saying they’re unhappy with the job the president has done, compared to 40 percent who say they’re satisfied with his performance.

Meanwhile, Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) is wildly popular in the state, with a job approval rating at 60 percent, near his all-time high. Kasich is expected to enter the race for the Republican presidential nomination next month.

“Gov. John Kasich was re-elected in a landslide in 2014, while President Barack Obama carried the Buckeye State comfortably in 2012,” said Peter A. Brown, the assistant director of the poll. “Yet Kasich remains a political icon, while Obama might have difficulty winning in Ohio these days, factors which could boost Sen. Rob Portman’s re-election chances.”

In Florida, two Democrats lead in potential head-to-head match-ups against two Republican candidates.

So far, Reps. Patrick Murphy (D) and Ron DeSantis (R) are the only declared candidates in the race to replace Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).

Murphy leads DeSantis 39 percent to 31 percent. Murphy also has a 40 percent to 28 percent lead over Lt. Gov. Carlos López-Cantera (R), who is expected to enter the Senate race next month.

Murphy could still face a primary challenge from Rep. Alan Grayson (D), although the establishment in the state has lined up behind Murphy and is working to keep Grayson on the sidelines.

Still, Grayson would defeat either of the Republicans, according to the poll. He has a 38 percent to 32 percent lead over DeSantis, and leads López-Cantera 37 percent to 31 percent.

None of the candidates on either side are well known, with at least 60 percent of voters saying they don’t know enough about any of them.

“Democrats hold an early edge in the Sunshine State, but no candidate from either party has much visibility at this point,” said Brown.

In Pennsylvania, Sen. Pat Toomey (R) continues to have a comfortable lead over former Rep. Joe Sestak (D) in a rematch from their 2010 contest.

Toomey takes 47 percent in the poll, over Sestak at 36 percent.

Toomey edged Sestak by 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania in 2010, a wave election year for Republicans.

Democrats are not thrilled by the prospect of Sestak running again in 2016, but Toomey’s lead over a handful of lesser-known candidates in the state is even wider than over Sestak.

Toomey is popular at home, with 51 percent saying they approve of the job he’s doing, compared to 28 percent who say they disapprove.

“With healthy job approval and favorability ratings and opponents who have very weak or even negligible recognition, Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey seems to be on cruise control for now,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

The Quinnipiac University polls were conducted between June 4 and June 15.

The poll of 1,147 Florida voters has a 2.9-percentage-point margin of error. The poll of 1,191 Ohio voters has a 2.8-percentage-point margin of error. The poll of 970 Pennsylvania voters has a 3.2-percentage-point margin of error.