The Trail 2016: Trump’s new enemy

by Lisa Hagen - 10/18/16 6:05 PM ET

Welcome to THE TRAIL 2016, your daily rundown from The Hill on all the latest news in the White House, Senate and House races.

On the eve of third and final presidential debate, Donald Trump has sworn off polls, saying on Tuesday he no longer believes them, as he continues to trail Hillary Clinton nationally and in most battleground states.

“I don’t believe them,” Trump said at his first rally of the day in Colorado Springs. “If there’s 10 [polls], and if there’s one or two bad ones, that’s the only one they show.”

But the polls three weeks out from Election Day are troubling signs for the GOP nominee, who was out in full force on the campaign trail in the lead-up to tomorrow’s debate.

Clinton edges him out by 6 points nationally in the latest NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll. And out of 15 battleground states surveyed by the Washington Post, the Democratic nominee is leading in nine key states.

Trump continued to stoke the narrative about a rigged election and accused the media during his earlier rally for creating the “rigged system.”

But at a press conference at the Rose Garden earlier in the day, President Obama poured cold water on Trump’s unsubstantiated claims. “I’d invite Mr. Trump to stop whining and go try to make his case to get votes,” he said.

Stay with The Hill tonight for more stories leading up to Wednesday night’s grand finale and come back tomorrow as reporter Jonathan Easley brings us on-the-ground coverage from Las Vegas.

RACE TO 1600 PENN

TRUMP DOMINATES THE AIRWAVES: The Hill’s Reid Wilson reports: Donald Trump’s campaign is finally spending more money than Hillary Clinton’s. His campaign will spend almost $11.7 million on TV ads set to run in 11 states this week, topping Clinton’s spending on ads for the first time. The Clinton campaign is spending $10.5 million on advertising in seven states.

GOODBYE, MEMBERS:The Hill’s Harper Neidig reports: Donald Trump called for term limits in Congress as part of his new ethics reform proposal. Trump released a five-point ethics plan Monday night in an effort to “drain the swamp” in Washington.

A STEP TOO FAR: The Hill’s Cristina Marcos reports: Congressional Republicans are expressing discomfort with Donald Trump’s claims that the election is “rigged” against him. They fear his assertions will undermine Americans’ faith in the electoral process and the long-standing precedent that candidates accept the legitimacy of voting results.

TRADING BARBS: The Hill’s Jonathan Swan reports: Donald Trump is spotlighting his populist trade appeal in a new TV ad that blames the Clintons for the ruin of American manufacturing.

ODDS AND ENDS

WHAT TOOK YOU SO LONG: The Hill’s Jonathan Swan reports: Campaign operatives who competed against Donald Trump in the Republican primaries are bristling at suggestions they failed to fully investigate the businessman during his march to the nomination.

BILLIONAIRE SHORTLIST: The Hill’s Jessie Hellmann reports: Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman in March floated a long list of potential running mates for Clinton, including billionaire Bill Gates, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

TRUMP’S OWN EMAIL PROBLEMS: The Hill’s Julian Hattem reports: Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email system while serving as secretary of State, but Trump’s corporate enterprise appears to be equally vulnerable to cyberattack.

DEFENDING ONE OF HIS OWN: The Hill’s Julian Hattem reports: President Obama tried to pour cold water on evidence that the State Department had pressured the FBI not to classify one email in former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s archive.

POLITICAL PLOY: The Hill’s Lisa Hagen reports: Mike Pence is calling the firebombing of a county GOP headquarters in North Carolina an “act of political terrorism.”

POLL POSITION

CLINTON CRUSHES IN NV: The Hill’s Jonathan Easley reports from Las Vegas: Hillary Clinton has pulled ahead of Donald Trump in Nevada, leading by 7 points, a new poll finds.

GOP SENATE EDGE: The Hill’s Ben Kamisar reports: Republicans have narrow leads in two Senate races they must win to hold the majority, a new poll finds. GOP Sen. Marco Rubio leads by 2 points in Florida, and GOP Sen. Pat Toomey leads by 4 points in Pennsylvania.

MILLENNIAL MARGIN: The Hill’s Rebecca Savransky reports: Hillary Clinton is dominating Donald Trump among millennial voters, according to a new USA Today/Rock the Vote poll.

BADGER STATE SHOWDOWN: The Hill’s Lisa Hagen reports: Hillary Clinton holds an 8-point lead over Donald Trump in Wisconsin, a new poll finds. The survey also found former Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) leading by double digits over Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.).

THE DAILY TRUMP

THE LAST STAGE IS ACCEPTANCE: The Hill’s Rebecca Savransky reports: Donald Trump’s campaign manager says the GOP nominee will accept the results of the election as long as there’s no “overwhelming evidence” of fraud.

DEBATE GUEST: The Hill’s Ben Kamisar reports: Donald Trump has invited the mother of a State Department employee killed in the 2012 Benghazi attacks to attend the final debate.

TWO THUMBS DOWN: The Hill’s Jessie Hellmann reports: Donald Trump Jr. once joked about the Aurora shooting as well as overweight people and Arabs, CNN reports.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Because maybe he wants to run in four years and maybe he doesn’t know how to win.”

— Donald Trump, when asked on ABC’s “Good Morning America” if he thinks Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) wants the GOP presidential nominee to win.

CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGNS

OBAMA TO THE RESCUE: The Hill’s Jessie Hellmann reports: President Obama is lending a hand to down-ballot Democrats in Illinois and Nevada, starring in ads for both a House and Senate candidate.

SENATE CURVEBALL: The Hill’s Ben Kamisar reports: Former Boston Red Sox star pitcher Curt Schilling is throwing a curveball at popular Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) — he’s nearing a bid to unseat her in 2018.

LEGAL STATUS: The Hill’s Jordain Carney reports: Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) is throwing his support behind granting legal status for undocumented immigrants currently in the U.S. He made the comments during a Monday debate against former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D).

HOUSE GOP, DEMS ON OFFENSE: The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super-PAC aligned with House GOP leadership, released new ads in seven House battlegrounds. The ads target Democratic candidates on spending and national security. Meanwhile, House Majority PAC, a Democratic super-PAC is also airing seven new ads in six districts that targets GOP incumbents and candidates’ records.

MONEY WATCH

SUN SETTING IN FLORIDA SENATE: The Hill’s Lisa Hagen reports: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is pulling the remaining money for TV advertising out of the Florida Senate race with three weeks until Election Day.

DCCC HAUL: The Hill’s Harper Neidig reports: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the party’s fundraising arm for House candidates, raised a record $21 million in September, according to Politico. It’s part of the DCCC’s $44 million third quarter haul.

CASH BLITZ: The Hill’s Tim Devaney reports: The firearms industry’s trade association has spent $1.6 million this year to defeat Hillary Clinton, according to a new report issued by The Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW).

SAVE THE SENATE: Americans for Prosperity, a conservative group funded by the Koch network, is launching a seven-figure digital ad buy targeting Democrats in eight key Senate races on ObamaCare. The states include Florida, Missouri, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina and Nevada.

WHAT WE ARE WATCHING FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW

(All times Eastern)

There are three Senate debates today: one in Indiana between Todd Young and Evan Bayh at 7 p.m., the second in Louisiana between John Kennedy, Charles Boustany and Caroline Fayard at 8 p.m., and the third in Wisconsin between Ron Johnson and Russ Feingold at 9:30 p.m.

Mike Pence speaks in Fayetteville, N.C., at 6 p.m. today and in Durango, Colo., at 2 p.m. on Wednesday.

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will square off in the third and final presidential debate moderated by Fox News’s Chris Wallace from 9 to 10:30 p.m. in Las Vegas.

Tim Kaine will participate in a canvass kick-off at 10:15 a.m. on Wednesday in Arlington, Ohio. He will also hold rallies at noon in Springfield, Ohio, and in Asheville, N.C., at 5 p.m.

Bernie Sanders will campaign in Tucson, Ariz., tonight at 10. On Wednesday, he’ll be in Reno, Nev., for Hillary Clinton and Democratic Senate hopeful Catherine Cortez Masto at 1:45 p.m.

TWEET OF THE DAY