CAMPAIGN OVERNIGHT: Happy anniversary?

A year after the GOP-induced government shutdown and the disastrous rollout of HealthCare.gov, Republicans and ObamaCare have made comebacks. But Democrats are still waiting for theirs.

{mosads}Today marks the one-year anniversary of the shutdown and the first stuttering failures of the government exchange’s website. Back then, Democrats were giddy over the potential political payoff after GOP obstructionism in Congress shuttered the government for 16 days. Now, they’re not feeling so confident.

Many Democrats spent Wednesday looking to revive the public’s past fury, and a few campaigns across the country have sought to make hay out of the shutdown in ads. But the lack of widespread Democratic focus on the year-old shutdown’s anniversary shows the party doesn’t think the issue is helping it much as it seeks to save the Senate and minimize House losses. And while Republicans continue to focus on ObamaCare, the failed website is working fine.

A year is an eternity in politics.

 

SENATE SHOWDOWN

SPENDING: Republicans have an advertising advantage in four key Senate races after a recent influx in spending from outside groups, an analysis of political spending has found.

KS-SEN (ROBERTS): A district judge ruled that Kansas Democrats do not have to replace Chad Taylor, who withdrew from the election earlier this month, on the ballot. That’s a huge blow to incumbent GOP Sen. Pat Roberts, who trails Independent Greg Orman in a new poll by 5 percentage points.

LA-SEN (LANDRIEU): West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin gave a boost to Sen. Mary Landrieu, facing a tough re-eelction, saying energy-producing states would be “absolutely dead” without her.

NC-SEN (HAGAN): A North Carolina court struck down portions of a new voting restrictions pushed by Republicans in the statehouse that cut down early voting and reinstate same-day registration and voting outside home precincts that Democrats say hurts college students’ chances at voting. The ruling could help boost Democratic turnout this fall.

NH-SEN (SHAHEEN): Republican Scott Brown appears to have missed all hearings on border security as a member of the Senate Homeland Security Committee as Massachusetts senator.

OUTSIDE SPENDING: Republicans have had the edge on the airwaves in a few top Senate battlegrounds in recent weeks due to heavy late spending by GOP outside groups, according to the Wesleyan Media Project.

 

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

OUTSIDE SPENDING: House Majority PAC is cutting back ad reservations in a number of districts, a sign it’s feeling confident Reps. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), Sean Maloney (D-N.Y.) and Elizabeth Esty (D-Conn.) are in good shape, and that they’re giving up on targeting Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.) and open seats outside Philadelphia and Detroit.

DCCC: In an op-ed for CNN, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) reminds readers of last year’s government shutdown and says voters know “which candidate will have their back and which one will have the back of special interests.”

VA-10 (OPEN): Cosmopolitan magazine endorsed Fairfax County Commissioner John Foust (D) over Virginia Del. Barbara Comstock (R), slamming Comstock for opposing legal abortion and backing “legislation requiring women seeking abortions — even rape and incest victims — to undergo trans-vaginal ultrasounds.”

MA-6 (OPEN): Some longtime supporters of outgoing Democratic Rep. John Tierney are wary of the man that beat him in the party primary, Seth Moulton.

NY-11 (GRIMM): Rep. Michael Grimm (R) and Democrat Domenic Recchia met in their first debate, during which Grimm characterized Recchia as a tax-raising liberal and Recchia questioned whether Grimm could serve despite facing indictments. Grimm also explained his threat to toss a reporter over a balcony: “Sometimes I get my Italian up.”

NH-2 (KUSTER): During a Tuesday radio interview, Republican Marilinda Garcia said most people she talks to in the district aren’t concerned about women’s issues like fair pay and contraception coverage, which a spokesman later said was meant to highlight the fact that Rep. Annie Kuster (D) is a “single-issue candidate.” Garcia also once said, during a 2007 floor speech, that women are “emotional rollercoasters.”

 

FUNDRAISING FIGURES

IA-SEN (OPEN): The GOP’s Joni Ernst crushed Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley in the third fundraising quarter, hauling in $4.5 million to Braley’s $2.8 million.

CA-21 (VALADAO): Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) raised $540,000 in the last fundraising quarter and has $1.1 million in the bank as of Oct. 1 for the homestretch against former Hill staffer Amanda Renteria (D).

AZ-1 (KIRKPATRICK): Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) raised $800,000 in the third quarter for her battle with Arizona Speaker Andy Tobin.

IL-10 (SCHNEIDER): Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) raised $1.1 million in the third quarter for his rematch against former Rep. Bob Dold (R-Ill.) in the expensive suburban Chicago district.

 

POLL POSITION

KY-SEN (MCCONNELL): An internal poll from Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes’s campaign shows her ahead by 2 points, taking 42 percent support to Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) 40 percent support.

NH-SEN (SHAHEEN): A New England College poll shows Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) tied with Republican Scott Brown, each taking 47 percent support.

SD-SEN (OPEN): A new survey from Public Policy Polling gives Republican Mike Rounds 35 percent support, Democrat Rick Weiland 28 percent, independent Larry Pressler 24 percent and independent Gordon Howie 8 percent support in South Dakota.

WI-GOV (WALKER): Gov. Scott Walker (R-Wis) leads Democratic businesswoman Mary Burke 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in a poll conducted by Marquette University Law School. But it also found the two tied at 45 percent among registered voters.

NJ-3 (OPEN): A new poll from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee  shows Democrat Aimee Belgard about tied with Republican Tom MacArthur, taking 43 percent to his 42 percent support, with 15 percent undecided.

VA-10 (OPEN): Virginia Del. Barbara Comstock (R) leads Fairfax County Commissioner John Foust (D) in a pair of new partisan polls. The Republican super-PAC Congressional Leadership Fund has Comstock leading Foust 46 percent to 34 percent, and a poll from the Democratic House Majority PAC says Comstock leads 41 percent to 39 percent.

MN-8 (NOLAN): Rep. Rick Nolan (D-Minn.) leads challenger Stewart Mills (R) 48 percent to 37 percent in a new poll conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

 

AD WATCH

SD-SEN (OPEN): Republican Mike Rounds’s latest ad features two veterans touting his dedication to their issues.

OR-SEN (MERKLEY): Republican Monica Wehby hits Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley over his support for ObamaCare and the promise that all Americans would be able to keep their doctors. 


IA-SEN (BRALEY): Rep. Bruce Braley (D) says veterans’ issues are a “huge priority” for him in a new ad.

NC-SEN (HAGAN): Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) is out with a contrast ad hitting Speaker Thom Tillis (R) on education.

KY-SEN (MCCONNELL): Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes’s new ad features praise from former President Clinton.

LA-SEN (LANDRIEU): Rep Bill Cassidy (R-La.) slams Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) over border security and her support for granting legal status to illegal immigrants. 


TX-23 (GALLEGO): The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released two ads in the only competitive federal general election race in Texas. The spots hit Republican Will Hurd, a former CIA officer, on military and education cuts.

 

2016 RUMBLINGS:

WARREN: Ready for Warren, a draft group aimed at convincing Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) to run for president, is adding staffers. Warren has repeatedly and unequivocally said she won’t run.

PELOSI: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) told reporters that she’s positive a Democrat will win the White House in 2016.

CLINTON/CHRISTIE: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton continues to lead New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) in a hypothetical match-up in his home state, with a 10-point lead in a new Quinnipiac University poll.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Do you know Bruce?”

—Rep. Jim McDermott (D-Wash.), impersonating Bruce Lee in a Vine produced by his staff