2012 White House hopefuls face home-state blues

Critics of the 2012 GOP presidential field often note that the leading prospects have failed to generate much enthusiasm.

For evidence, they point to poll after poll showing the primary without a clear front-runner, while President Obama remains competitive or ahead of Republican rivals in states that lean red, like North Carolina.

{mosads}But another way to measure enthusiasm is by looking at how well candidates poll in their home states. Theoretically and historically, a strong national candidate should enjoy strong support at home. So how does this cycle’s presidential field stack up?

Thankfully, with the exception of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, there’s a large body of polling to help answer that question. 

Sarah Palin

No GOP candidate has a more intriguing and counterintuitive relationship with her state than Palin, Alaska’s former governor.

Palin’s name seems inexorably linked with Alaska; she even starred in a reality show set in the state. But that doesn’t mean Alaskans love her back. 

After resigning early as Alaska’s governor, Palin came under heavy criticism. A Public Policy Polling survey last fall showed Palin wouldn’t even win her party’s primary in Alaska, as she tied for just second place with Huckabee. 

Palin also faces a more daunting statistic. Among likely Republican primary voters in Alaska who have a favorable opinion of her, just 39 percent want her to run for president. And according to a Hayes Research Group poll, Alaskans have a more favorable view of their new governor, Sean Parnell, by 17 percent.

Tim Pawlenty

One of former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s chief selling points is that he was elected in a blue state, Minnesota, and could therefore theoretically turn it red in 2012. 

But it’s unclear whether he would even win his state’s Republican primary. 

In a December 2010 Public Policy Polling survey of Minnesotans, Pawlenty was the leading choice of Republican voters by a scant 7 percent over Palin, and the numbers were even tougher in a general election.

Two recent surveys showed former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney performing better than Pawlenty in a match-up against President Obama. Further, Pawlenty roundly lost to the president in both polls, by 9 percent and 8 percent. If T-Paw is going to successfully make the argument he can turn Minnesota red, he has to close the gap with Obama considerably.

Mitt Romney

It’s difficult to pinpoint where Romney’s home-state advantage lies. 

As governor of Massachusetts, he shared a border and media market with New Hampshire, but his father was the former governor of Michigan and his ties to that state run deep.

In the 2008 election, Romney won Michigan by nearly 10 percent and lost New Hampshire to Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) by 6 percent. The 17-point swing suggests his home-state ties are strongest in Michigan.

If that’s the case, then a new Strategic National poll has troublesome news for him. Among likely GOP voters in Michigan, he wins a hypothetical primary over Huckabee by just 5.5 percent. Even more worrisome is a December survey of Republican voters by Public Policy Polling showing Romney and Huckabee tied for the lead in Michigan. 

Michigan represented Romney’s highest-profile victory in 2008, and if Huckabee could wrest the state away, Romney’s bid for the nomination would be badly damaged.

Rick Perry

If one could measure the success of a governor by how many times he or she has won reelection, then none could be more successful than Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who won a record third term in November. Both his electoral success and the state’s relatively strong economy have many Republicans dreaming of a Perry bid for president.

But according to a recent Public Policy Polling survey, Perry places only sixth in a GOP primary in the state, pulling in 9 percent. 

In fact, Texas Republicans prefer another home-state prospect, Rep. Ron Paul. If Perry can’t beat Paul in Texas, it’s questionable whether he could beat him anywhere.

Polls even suggest Perry could be beaten by Obama in Texas, which hasn’t seen its electoral votes go to a Democrat since 1976. While Huckabee leads Obama by a resounding 16 percent in a hypothetical 2012 match-up, Perry manages only a tie with the president in Public Policy Polling’s survey.

The struggles facing the leading candidates in their home states suggest why names on the periphery have become so popular. Public Policy Polling’s Tom Jensen tells me that in a poll of South Dakotans to be released later this week, voters are “incredibly supportive” of a John Thune bid for president, leading Jensen to conclude that the GOP senator could be a strong dark horse for president.

The poor performance of front-runners in their home states is another sign of “weakness” in the GOP field, Jensen said. “It’s hard to expect that folks who aren’t even popular in their home states are going to be really appealing on the national stage.”

Heinze, the founder of GOP12.com, is a member of staff at The Hill.  Find his column, GOP Presidential Primary, on digital-staging.thehill.com