Nevada sticks with caucuses in blow to Jeb

The Nevada state legislature on Tuesday failed to pass a measure changing its presidential caucuses to a primary election, dealing a blow to former Gov. Jeb Bush’s (R-Fla.) hopes in the early-voting state, while boosting Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).

The move to a primary was backed by many in the Republican establishment, but state party leaders in the legislature ultimately passed on bringing the bill up for a vote, believing there wasn’t enough support.

The New York Times reported on Tuesday that Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) intervened to keep the state’s caucuses, leaning on a Nevada Democrat who was open to the change.

{mosads}Nevada is still a critical carve-out state by virtue of being the fourth to vote in the GOP nominating process. However, top-tier Republican presidential contenders like Bush, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker will now have to decide how much of their resources to commit to the first-in-the-West caucus.

Those three could have been in good shape if the state had moved to a primary, which tend be higher turnout affairs that favor well-funded candidates who spend a lot of time and money on the ground.

In 2012, the eventual Republican presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, ran away with the caucuses, taking 50 percent support, followed by former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) at 21 percent and then-Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) at 19 percent.

But the Nevada caucuses historically have low turnout and have proven to be erratic affairs. That could favor Paul, who can build on his father’s fervent base of grassroots support to assert outsized influence over the event.

In 2012, fewer than 8 percent of eligible voters participated in the Nevada caucuses, with participation falling from 44,000 in 2008 to 33,000 most recently. 

And despite Romney’s overwhelming margin of victory on Election Day, Ron Paul ended up winning a majority of the state’s delegates by virtue of his small, but committed base of supporters remaining active at the state conventions throughout the process.

The Nevada caucuses have attracted controversy in the past.

In 2012, the state planned to move its caucuses from early February to mid-January, setting off a mad scramble among other states to move their primaries or caucuses up in order to maintain their importance in the field.

Nevada party leaders ultimately settled on the later date after coming under heavy pressure from national Republican leaders.