Early voting has campaigns scrambling to gain support

The outcome of the midterm election could be decided before Nov. 2.

Several states allow early voting, and campaigns are pushing voters to take advantage of that so they can bank votes ahead of Election Day.

{mosads}As of Tuesday, early voting was open in 26 states, including the battlegrounds of Ohio, Kentucky, Florida, Missouri and West Virginia.

Ohio Senate candidate Lee Fisher (D), for instance, ditched the traditional Election Day trip to the polls and instead invited reporters to the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections in Cleveland Tuesday, where he cast an early ballot. The Ohio Democratic Party has more than 100 field staffers working on its early-vote program and has rented a decorated bus — which former Obama campaign manager David Plouffe was traveling on Tuesday — to push the message.

“What we’re doing in early voting is an incredibly crucial element of our success in this midterm election,” said Doug Kelly, executive director of the ODP. “We’re spending a significant amount of money to make sure we get our Democratic base out in this 35-day early-voting window.”
Ohio Republicans are also pushing supporters to vote early.

“Voters are frustrated with what they see coming from Columbus and Washington, and early voting allows them the opportunity to get out and support a better way to get Ohio back on track after four years and 400,000 lost jobs here in Ohio under Lt. Gov. Fisher’s watch,” said Jessica

Towhey, a spokeswoman for Republican Senate candidate Rob Portman.

Given the large enthusiasm gap between the Republican and Democratic bases, GOP operatives think early voting will work in their party’s favor in the majority of competitive states this fall, giving Republican campaigns the ability to bank votes, Obama-style, with conservative voters chomping at the bit.

“The motivation for Republicans is just so overwhelming that they’re ready for Election Day right now,” said Phillip Stutts, a Republican consultant who ran get-out-the-vote operations for President George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign. “We haven’t had an environment this positive for Republicans since 2004, and early voting was much less prevalent then.”

In some states, the early-voting period runs through Nov. 1, while in others it covers a one- to two-week period that concludes prior to November.

In Nevada, for example, in-person early voting begins Oct. 16 and runs through Oct. 29. In Illinois, early in-person voting spans Oct. 11 through Oct. 28. And, in California, in-person early voting runs almost a full month — starting Oct. 4 and ending on Oct. 26.

Strategy-wise for campaigns, it’s largely a question of whether the focus is on banking consistent midterm base voters — the most likely to turn out this fall — or targeting voters who are less likely to turn out in 2010.

A look at the numbers shows just why the early-voting period will be so critical, if not decisive, for many campaigns. In 2008, more than 39.7 million voters nationwide cast their ballots early and, in many states, early voters accounted for more than a third of total ballots cast, according to statistics compiled by George Mason University Professor Michael McDonald.

“I do expect a bit of pullback since it’s a midterm election year,” said McDonald. “But you have competitive races in states with high levels of early voting — Colorado, Washington and Florida, for example.”

{mosads}In Florida in 2008, early voting accounted for more than 51 percent of the total votes cast that year. In Ohio, a full 25 percent of the electorate voted early in 2008; that number is expected to climb close to 40 percent this year.

This year, Florida Republican Senate candidate Marco Rubio has been sending text messages to supporters directing them to a website with early-voting instructions.

Democratic candidate Kendrick Meek made early voting a priority in the primary, having former President Clinton mention it during the robo-call he recorded for the campaign.

“The campaign is certainly encouraging voters to go to the polls early,” Dave Hoffman, a spokesman for Meek, said in an e-mail. “Both Kendrick and his wife voted early during the primary election and will be doing so again in the general.”

Arizona, which has several competitive House races, is also a state where early voting is central to the campaigns’ strategy.

“Arizona’s one of those states that now the majority of our general-election vote is going to come through the mail,” said Republican House candidate David Schweikert. “Early balloting has dramatically changed Arizona. In our primary, it was about 75 percent of all the ballots. In our general election we think 55 to 60 percent of our vote will come through the mail.”

Schweikert is in a rematch with Rep. Harry Mitchell (D-Ariz.), who defeated him in 2008.

“If you can build a large enough lead in the mailbox, the race mathematically could be over by Oct. 20,” Schweikert said, citing recent polling showing him in the lead.

The process also means campaigns need to advertise on television sooner to reach early voters.

“You get to talk to individuals who are holding a ballot in their hand and all they have to do is pull out their pen and mail it. It becomes a very efficient way to communicate,” Schweikert said. “Our election explodes next week, because we’ve got to be on the air for about a week before the early ballots and a couple weeks after that.”

The early-voting ballots are mailed Oct. 7; people start filling them out Oct. 8. They can drop them off right up to Election Day.

Mitchell’s campaign said it has “one of the strongest field programs in the country, which heavily focuses on early voters.”

“We are confident that given recent polling data showing voters, particularly independents, favoring Mitchell by over 20 points, our campaign will prevail in early ballots, as well as on Election Day,” Melissa Hodgdon, Mitchell’s spokeswoman, said in an e-mail.

Another likely effect, predicts McDonald, is that as Election Day nears, early-voting totals in key states will help the national parties reassess where to spend their resources in the final week of the campaign.

“I think the Monday before Election Day, we’re going to have a real idea of which way the election is breaking by looking at the early-voting totals and they’ll show that certain races just aren’t winnable for one party or the other,” he said.

This story was originally posted on September 29, 2010 at 6 AM.