RACE OF THE DAY: Ind.-09

Embattled Rep. Baron Hill’s (D-Ind.) fate is likely to be decided by a narrow margin Tuesday, with a third-party candidate in Indiana’s 9th district key to next week’s outcome. 

Hill is facing a tough challenge from Republican Todd Young, but Greg Knott is running as a Libertarian, which Democrats are openly hoping will work against the Republican nominee. 

The Associated Press reported Thursday that Indiana’s Democratic Party is funding a mailer targeting Republicans that labels Knott the more conservative candidate in the race. 

State Republicans are up in arms over the mailer, but Indiana’s Democratic chairman is defending the piece, noting the mailers are clearly marked as paid for by the state party.

It’s a dynamic that’s playing out in several competitive House races across the nation and it could spare Democrats some seats Tuesday in what increasingly looks like it could be a GOP landslide. 

As with most endangered Democrats, Hill’s opponent charges that his voting record hews too closely to that of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and the Democratic leadership in Congress. 

Young has hit the Democrat for voting in favor of the stimulus plan and healthcare.

Hill, a member of his party’s centrist Blue Dog Coalition in the House, has stood behind his vote in favor of the stimulus, telling the AP in a recent interview that the stimulus was part of what “prevented us from going into that depression that was being predicted.”   

The incumbent has touted his backing from the National Rifle Association (NRA) and has a history of winning close races in this conservative-leaning district. 

Numbers from The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll released earlier this week showed Hill up two points on his GOP challenger, but the Libertarian candidate was not included in the survey. 

The key for Hill could be Republican support. The poll showed Hill with a significant percentage of the vote from Republicans — a full 12 percent said they’re backing Hill. Among independents, Young leads by a staggering 17-point margin. 

The incumbent’s favorables are positive overall, but voters are prepared to hold his years in Washington against him. A full 48 percent of likely voters said Hill’s time in D.C. is a reason to cast a vote against him next week.