Poll finds mixed results for Dems in NH

A new independent poll finds Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D-N.H.) lagging behind her Republican opponent by 4 points.

The WMUR Granite State poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, shows Kuster with 37 percent support to state Rep. Marilinda Garcia’s 41 percent among likely voters, when undecided voters leaning one way or the other are included in the total. Another 19 percent are undecided.

{mosads}That’s within the poll’s 5.9 percentage point margin of error, but it’s a reversal of fortune for Kuster since the last Granite State poll, conducted in August. And it is the third poll to suggest the momentum in the race is moving in Garcia’s direction.

There is better news for Democrats in the poll concerning Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, who fares slightly better in the survey.

In the state’s first congressional district, Shea-Porter holds a slim lead over former Rep. Frank Guinta (R), taking 42 percent support of likely voters to his 39 percent support.

That’s again within the poll’s 6.1 percentage point margin of error, but it suggests an improvement from the August survey, when Guinta led Shea-Porter by 4 points.

Most public polling has given Kuster a sizable lead over Garcia, and she represents the more Dem-friendly of the state’s two congressional districts.

The university surveyed a relatively small pool of likely voters: 258 in the First District and 275 in the Second District.

Still, the results suggest both races remain tight heading into the final month before the midterms, a worrying proposition for Democrats as they fight to prevent Republicans from expanding their 17-seat majority.

The surveys were conducted via landline and cellphone from Sept. 29 to Oct. 5.