Democrats are poised to make only single-digit gains in the House, as Republicans rode Donald Trump’s coattails to victory.
Nine seats held by Republicans flipped to Democrats in Tuesday’s elections. But three GOP wins in Florida and Nebraska are keeping those pickups in single digits.
At this rate, Democrats are likely to net just six House seats, far short of the 30 they would have needed to win the majority.
{mosads}Freshman Rep. Brad Ashford (D-Neb.) was projected midday Wednesday to lose reelection to Republican Don Bacon. He’s the first incumbent House Democrat to be defeated by a Republican.
Rep. Mike Honda (D-Calif.) also lost reelection, but to a fellow Democrat. He and Ro Khanna were the two top vote-getters in California’s jungle primary system in June, meaning the seat would remain in Democratic hands no matter who won.
Ashford’s victory in 2014 was an anomaly in a year when Republicans won the largest House majority since the Great Depression.
He benefited from a flawed incumbent, then-Rep. Lee Terry (R-Neb.), who came under fire for refusing to give up his paycheck during the 2013 government shutdown.
Ashford was considered one of the most vulnerable House Democrats going into the 2016 election cycle, given his state’s GOP leanings. He was the first Democrat to represent the district in more than two decades.
Democrats had operated all year under the assumption that Trump would be a drag down ballot for many House GOP candidates. They targeted Republicans in affluent, suburban districts where Trump was expected to perform poorly.
House Republicans struggled to respond to Trump’s frequent controversies as they condemned his rhetoric, but sought to avoid alienating his supporters. Many frequently expressed unease about Trump, from his proposal to ban Muslim immigration to his derogatory remarks about women and Hispanics.
But Trump’s stronger-than-expected turnout helped Republicans prevail over their Democratic challengers.
At this rate, Democrats won’t be able to fully erase the historic gains made by Republicans in the 2014 midterm elections.
A handful of races in California are still uncalled as of late Wednesday morning.
Republican Rep. Darrell Issa is leading in his reelection bid.
In addition to Ashford, Republicans flipped two open seats in Florida that are currently held by Democrats.
House Democrats’ biggest prize of the night was unseating former House Transportation Committee Chairman John Mica (R-Fla.), who’s been in office since 1993. Late-breaking Democratic challenger Stephanie Murphy benefited from redistricting that made the district more favorable to her party.
Democrats also knocked off seven-term Rep. Scott Garrett (R-N.J.), a member of the conservative Freedom Caucus who chairs an influential subcommittee on the House Financial Services panel.
They also unseated GOP Reps. David Jolly (Fla.), Bob Dold (Ill.), Cresent Hardy (Nev.) and Frank Guinta (N.H.), who either represented perennial swing seats or were impacted by redistricting favorable to Democrats.
Three open seats in Florida, Nevada and Virginia additionally swung into Democrats’ column.
Updated 1:42 p.m.