Huckabee’s 2010 fundraising, appearances stoke 2012 speculation

Mike Huckabee is endorsing candidates, appearing on the
campaign trail and raising money — all for 2010. And this increased presence
has raised his profile in the 2012 White House stakes.

Adding to the presidential buzz is a recent Iowa poll that
showed the former Arkansas governor leading a field of probable Republican
candidates.

{mosads}Several people with knowledge of Huckabee’s thinking say he is mulling another
run, but for now he’ll wait and see how the GOP field takes shape,
while upping his support of Republican candidates to keep his name
near the top of the 2012 conversation.

If he gets the sense primary voters aren’t coalescing around
an early presidential favorite, he could see an opening and make his move,
those advisers say, noting Huckabee doesn’t feel pressured to get ahead of
the pack.

“I think he can get into the game late,” said longtime
Huckabee adviser Kirsten Fedewa. “He has the national name ID and the
ability to attract top talent and a broad base of support.”

“This is not a replay of 2008,” added Fedewa, who was
Huckabee’s communications director in his 2008 presidential bid.

Last time around, Huckabee was forced to rely heavily on earned media while
struggling to build a fundraising base and invest in the kind of ground
game needed to run a presidential campaign.

“He’s got much more of an infrastructure this time,” said
Chip Saltsman, Huckabee’s first campaign manager during his presidential run.
“I really don’t think he has to make a quick decision on this. He
can take his time.”

With former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former House Speaker
Newt Gingrich, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Alaska Gov.
Sarah Palin traversing the country ahead of the 2010 midterms and
dropping tens of thousands of PAC dollars into the coffers of
Republican candidates, Huckabee appears to have a newfound determination
to not be left behind.

He offered last-minute backing to former Rep. Nathan Deal (R) in Georgia’s gubernatorial
runoff — Deal won — and released a new slate of endorsements in Iowa, the
first state to hold a 2012 caucus.

On Friday, Huckabee announced plans to campaign for Florida Attorney General and gubernatorial candidate Bill McCollum (R) and Florida congressional candidate Dan Webster (R) ahead of Tuesday’s primary. Both candidates are locked in tight Republican primary contests.

But Huckabee has his doubters. One prominent conservative who doesn’t
think the former governor has done enough: Americans for Tax Reform
President Grover Norquist.

“I’m not seeing or hearing the kind of activity I would expect to
if he was really running,” said Norquist, who talked up the
“party building” efforts of other potential 2012 hopefuls like
Romney, Gingrich, former Sen. Rick Santorum and Mississippi Gov. Haley
Barbour.

Norquist said he’s been “impressed” with their efforts aimed
at bucking up Republican candidates in their home states.

“In my book, you get no credit for what you do in Iowa, New
Hampshire or South Carolina,” he said. “Those activities are all
transparently self-serving.”

Despite the fact that all of those Republicans have been active in the early
primary states, too, Norquist says they’re helping candidates in their
home states first and in other places across the country that aren’t among
the early GOP primary states.

Huckabee’s daily Fox News duties, where he is a TV and radio host, are another
complicating factor. Aside from giving him less time to campaign across
the country for 2010 candidates, he’d have to relinquish those platforms
once he declared a run for president.

Others point out that Huckabee’s 2008 alliances have complicated
his calculations in a couple of prominent races this cycle.

In the South Carolina governor’s race, which became an
endorsement war between several 2012 Republican hopefuls, Huckabee backed state Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who had little chance of capturing the nomination.
Bauer was a backer of Huckabee’s presidential campaign.

Similarly, in Iowa, Huckabee backed gubernatorial candidate Bob
Vander Plaats, who was running to the right of former Gov. Terry Branstad
in the Republican primary. Branstad won the primary and had the
backing of Romney and Palin. Vander Plaats chaired Huckabee’s Iowa
effort in 2008.

While Republican pollster Jim McLaughlin is one who does think Huckabee is
setting himself up for another run, he admits there’s a danger in either
jumping into the game too late or sending mixed signals about your desire
to be the next president.

“If you’re going to run, you gotta run,” said McLaughlin. “We
had that problem with Fred Thompson the last time around, and it can hurt
you.”

Key to another Huckabee run would be the first stop on the presidential
primary calendar — the Iowa caucuses. If the former governor stands any
chance of winning the Republican nomination in 2012, he would have to
repeat his 2008 victory in the primary season’s kick-off event.

It’s a state where Huckabee has not been as visible this year as several
other potential 2012 hopefuls.

“He obviously remains very popular among Iowans,” said Eric
Woolson, who headed Huckabee’s Iowa effort in 2008. Were he to run again
in 2012, Woolson said, the former governor would have little
trouble getting folks in the state lined up behind his bid.

As for the candidates who have been to the state the most this
year, “Pawlenty and Santorum have probably had the higher profile in
Iowa,” Woolson said. “They’ve just been here more.”

“I don’t expect him to run,” said Iowa-based pollster
Ann Selzer, who polls for the Des Moines Register. “I think he had a
niche in Iowa that worked for him in 2008. But I’m not sure that landscape
will stay the same for 2012.”

After the Des Moines Register released an early poll on
potential candidates in June and Huckabee’s name wasn’t included in the
mix, HuckPAC’s Hogan Gidley called the Register and chastised them
for excluding the former governor’s name.

“It made zero sense that he wasn’t included in that poll,”
Gidley said. “He’s extremely popular nationwide and he leads Obama in
a head-to-head match-up.”

In a poll earlier this month for the Iowa Republican
website, Huckabee led the GOP field with 22 percent, Romney received 18
percent, Gingrich came in with 14 percent and Palin got 11 percent.

Gidley said that HuckPAC’s ramp-up in activity had nothing
to do with the moves of probable candidates like Romney, Gingrich and
Pawlenty. He stressed that Huckabee has made no decisions on another run
in 2012.

“The governor has been extremely consistent. He’s focused on the
2010 election cycle and taking back the House, Senate and winning
a majority of governorships,” Gidley said.