OVERNIGHT CAMPAIGN: One week until Election Day, or two months?

We’re just over a week from Election Day, but control of the Senate might not be known for two more months. 

Observers and pundits on both sides have long expected Louisiana’s Senate race to go to a December runoff between Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu and GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy.

However, less attention is being paid to Amanda Swafford, the Georgia libertarian who could deny Senate candidates in her state a required 50 percent majority on Election Day.

{mosads}Georgia’s runoff wouldn’t occur until Jan. 6, the day after the new Congress is set to meet. These Southern states could block the one thing every election watcher truly wants: a clear answer on the morning of Nov. 5.

 

SENATE SHOWDOWN

AK-SEN (BEGICH): Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) is firing back at “belittling” comments from Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska) in their latest spat heading into Election Day.

KY-SEN (MCCONNELL): Sen Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) will join Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) on the trail Tuesday. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will also return to Kentucky the weekend before Election Day.

The United Mine Workers of America is holding two rallies this week to encourage pro-coal voters to come out in support of Grimes on Election Day. 

NC-SEN (OPEN): The Charlotte Observer gave a tepid endorsement to Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.), calling her a “disappointment” but ripping North Carolina Speaker Thom Tillis’s (R) record.

The League of Conservation Voters is increasing its total spending for Hagan to $5 million total, an increase from its planned $4.2 million and the most it’s ever spent on a Senate race.

IA-SEN (OPEN): Vice President Biden fired up die-hard Democrats in a minor league ballpark along the Mississippi River Monday, urging voters to promote Rep. Bruce Braley (D) to the Senate and keep Rep. David Loebsack (D) in the House.

The Des Moines Register endorsed Braley over Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R).

AR-SEN (PRYOR): The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette endorsed Rep. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) over Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.).

SD-SEN (OPEN): South Dakota Senate candidate Rick Weiland (D) is accusing national Democrats of trying to sabotage his bid by launching attack ads against Republican Mike Rounds.

OUTSIDE GROUPS: Environmental groups are set to top $85 million spent on the midterms, a new record for them.

 

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

VA-10 (OPEN): Virginia Del. Barbara Comstock (R) and Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust (D) squared off in a raucous debate that was interrupted time and again by their supporters over the weekend.

GA-12 (BARROW): Rep. John Barrow (D-Ga.) and businessman Rick Allen (R) squared off in a weekend debate.

 

AD WATCH

LA-5 (MCALLISTER): Zach Dasher is featuring “Duck Dynasty” patriarch Phil Robertson — who’s also his uncle, and has endorsed him — in two new ads airing through Election Day.

FL-2 (SOUTHERLAND): Rep. Steve Southerland (R-Fla.) is out with a new ad attacking his Democratic opponent, Gwen Graham, for being soft on national security issues. 

NE-2 (TERRY): The National Republican Congressional Committee has released another harsh ad in Nebraska, in hopes of protecting Rep. Lee Terry (R-Neb.).

The House Majority PAC hits Terry for taking pay during the government shutdown.

NY-11 (GRIMM): The House Majority PAC made a $1.7 million ad buy against embattled Rep. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.).

NY-24 (MAFFEI): A new House Majority PAC ad compares Republican John Katko to “right-wing politicians [who] try to force their views on everyone else.” 

 

POLL POSITION

AR-SEN (PRYOR): An internal poll for Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) shows that he leads Rep. Tom Pryor (R) 45 percent to 44 percent.  

CO-SEN (UDALL): A new Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee poll shows that Sen. Mark Udall (R-Colo.) leads his Republican opponent, Corey Gardner, 44 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. 

LA-SEN (LANDRIEU): Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu leads Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy in the race according to a new Suffolk University/USA Today poll released Monday, but only by 36 percent to 35 percent. If no candidate hits 50 percent, the top two will head to a runoff, in which Cassidy has a lead of 48 percent to 41 percent.

SD-SEN (OPEN): A new independent poll shows that former South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds is in the lead with 42 percent support among likely voters compared to Democrat Rick Weiland’s 33 percent and Larry Pressler’s 13 percent. 

GA-SEN (OPEN): Businessman David Perdue (R) and former charity executive Michelle Nunn (D) are deadlocked at 47 percent apiece in a new poll from Democratic firm Public Policy Polling.

NC-SEN (HAGAN): Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) leads North Carolina Speaker Thom Tillis (R) 48 percent to 46 percent in a new Monmouth University poll. A new SurveyUSA poll has them tied at 44 percent apiece.

NM-SEN (UDALL): Sen. Tom Udall (D-N.M.) leads Republican Allen Weh 50 percent to 43 percent in a new Albuquerque Journal poll, and by 51 percent to 45 percent in a new automated poll from GOP firm Vox Populi.

NY-18 (MALONEY): An internal poll from former Rep. Nan Hayworth (R) shows that she’s tied with Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney at 42 percentage points as she tries to return to Congress.  

NY-21 (OPEN): Republican Elise Stefanik leads with 50 percent of the vote in a new poll, compared to 32 percent for Democrat and 11 percent for Green Party candidate Matt Funiciello. 

IA-2 (OPEN) / IA-3 (OPEN): Republican Rod Blum leads Democrat Pat Murphy 44 percent to 42 percent in the race for Rep. Bruce Braley’s (D-Iowa) seat, and former Hill staffer David Young (R) leads former state Sen. Staci Appel (D) 46 percent to 44 percent in a new poll from Loras College.

 

2016 RUMBLINGS

CLINTON: The former secretary of State recently told attendees at a campaign event, “Don’t let anybody tell you that it’s corporations and businesses that create jobs.” She later walked the comment back to say that she meant to advocate building the economy from the ground-up.

PERRY: Gov. Rick Perry (R-Texas) continues to tease a potential presidential bid, this time telling CNBC that he’s “preparing” for a run, although he hasn’t decided yet officially. 

 

QUOTE OF THE DAY 

“There’d be no one you would want more to run against than Hillary Clinton, and on top of it, she’s not really good at politics.” Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, on how he believes that the prospect of Clinton as the Democrats’ 2016 nominee would help the Republican Party