Poll: Carson, Rubio ahead of Clinton in Iowa

by Jonathan Swan - 11/04/15 2:50 PM ET

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson beats Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in a head-to-head match-up in Iowa, a new poll shows.

Carson, who pushed ahead of billionaire Donald Trump in recent national polls, leads Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent in the latest survey by the liberal-leaning pollsters Public Policy Polling.

{mosads}The only other Republican who beats Clinton in a match-up in Iowa is Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who leads her 45 percent to 43 percent — an edge that falls within the poll’s margin of error.

Trump ties Clinton at 44 percent, and the former secretary of State holds narrow leads of between 1 and 2 percentage points over businesswoman Carly Fiorina, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Clinton leads former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush by 5 points and Ohio Gov. John Kasich by 7.

Bush, who performed poorly in last Wednesday’s CNBC debate, was marked down by Iowa voters who were quizzed by telephone and email in the days following.

Bush ties Trump for the worst favorability rating of any candidate in Iowa — 55 percent of voters there view him unfavorably — and not only does he lose to Clinton in a head-to-head, but he ties when pitched against self-described democratric socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

Iowans still dislike Clinton, but the PPP results suggest they are becoming more willing to vote for her. Just 40 percent of Iowans view her favorably, compared with 53 percent who view her unfavorably. These numbers, though, are fairly standard in a field where all candidates — with the exception of Carson (with 45 percent favorability) — are viewed more negatively than positively.

Clinton’s Iowa polling has improved after a month that included a strong debate performance, an 11-hour testimony before the Republican-led Benghazi committee and Vice President Biden’s decision not to contest the presidency.

“There’s been a lot of attention to how much better Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers for the Democratic primary have improved in the last few weeks,” said Dean Debnam, president of PPP, in a press release accompanying the poll.

“But she’s doing a good deal better when it comes to hypothetical general election match ups too.”

The last time PPP polled Iowans, in mid-September, Clinton trailed all eight Republicans in match-ups. Now she ties or leads all but two: Carson and Rubio. President Obama won Iowa in 2008 and 2012.

PPP poll surveyed 1,668 registered Iowa voters from Oct. 30 to Nov. 1 and has a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points.

Tags Bernie Sanders Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Marco Rubio Ted Cruz