Poll: Trump reclaims lead in Iowa

GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump has reclaimed a healthy lead over Ted Cruz in Iowa just days before the caucuses there, a new poll finds.

According to a Monmouth University survey released on Wednesday, Trump takes 30 percent support, followed by Cruz’s 23 percent. The same poll from mid-December found the Texas senator leading Trump 24 percent to 19 percent.

{mosads}It’s Trump’s best showing in the Monmouth poll so far this cycle. The survey was conducted before his startling announcement that he’d skip the final GOP debate in Des Moines on Thursday out of protest over how he believes he’s been treated by Fox News.

Rounding out the field in Iowa are Marco Rubio, at 16 percent, and Ben Carson, at 10 percent. Every other candidate earned less than 5 percent support in the poll.

Despite Trump’s surge, there is fodder in the poll for those who believe that the billionaire’s level of support is being puffed up and that he stands to underperform on Election Day.

Cruz is running strongest among those who have participated in the caucuses before, leading Trump 28 percent to 23 percent among this group.

Trump, meanwhile, is boosted in the poll by registered independents who say they’ll caucus as Republicans, taking 50 percent among this group and 44 percent among general election voters rather than caucus voters.

“Turnout is basically what separates Trump and Cruz right now,” said Monmouth polling director Patrick Murray. “Trump’s victory hinges on having a high number of self-motivated, lone wolf caucus-goers show up Monday night.”

Monmouth expects 170,000 voters to turn out for the Feb. 1 caucuses, far surpassing the GOP’s record of 122,000, set in 2012.

If 200,000 turn out, Monmouth’s analysis suggests Trump’s lead would increase to 32 percent to 21 percent over Cruz.

Trump and Cruz have been fighting fiercely for the evangelical voters that make up an outsized portion of the Iowa electorate; Cruz leads 32 percent to 25 percent over Trump among that key voting bloc in the Monmouth survey.

Cruz also leads among Tea Party supporters and those who identify as “very conservative,” while Trump mops up among more moderate conservatives.

Nearly half of likely caucusgoers report they’ve settled on their final decision, with 48 percent saying they won’t change their minds from who they currently support. Another 38 percent say they have a “strong preference.” Only 8 percent say they are undecided.

The Monmouth University survey of 500 likely GOP caucusgoers was conducted between Jan. 23 and Jan. 26 and has a 4.4 percentage point margin of error.