Trump seeks first win in New Hampshire

Donald Trump is seeking his first GOP primary victory tonight, as results flow in from New Hampshire. 

With 3.3 percent of the vote counted, Trump is leading the Republican field by 16 points, according to the AP real-time tables. 

{mosads}Trump’s defeat in last week’s contest in Iowa raised questions about his campaign’s organizational strength that would be set aside by a big win in New Hampshire. 

Although a snowstorm blew through the state late Monday night, accumulations and weather conditions were cooperating on Tuesday. Political watchers expect up to 600,000 voters combined in the Democratic and Republican contests — nearly half the state’s population and about double the turnout for the Iowa caucuses.  

Several GOP governors are hoping for a breakout performance in New Hampshire. 

Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush are both looking for big nights, as is New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has made repeated visits to New Hampshire. 

If those candidates split votes with Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who performed well in Iowa, it could make it easier for Trump to triumph.  

Rubio finished just behind the billionaire businessman with a strong third-place finish in the caususes and is looking to do better in New Hampshire.

But at a Saturday debate, he was hammered by Christie for reverting repeatedly to canned lines about President Obama. Tonight’s primary will reveal whether voters turned away after the performance. 

Bush and Christie have both been downplaying New Hampshire expectations, suggesting they are in the race for the long haul. 

Bush may be the only one of the three governors who has the resources to continue, however. And even then, a bad loss would ratchet up establishment pressure for him to quit and clear the field for Rubio.  

“If Rubio beats him badly in New Hampshire, Jeb is toast,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a Bush supporter and former candidate, said this week. 

Kasich has suggested that for him, it’s New Hampshire or bust.  

“If we don’t do well, we’re not going to be dragging around like some band of minstrels who beg people to come to our show,” Kasich said at a Bloomberg Politics breakfast in Manchester last week. 

Kasich’s brand of inclusive, compassionate conservatism is a good fit for New Hampshire’s independent-minded voters. And polling expert Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog rates the Ohio governor third most likely (behind Trump and Rubio) to win the primary there. 

New Hampshire does not have a particularly good record at picking presidents — the last candidate to win a contested New Hampshire primary and go on to take the White House was George H.W. Bush in 1988 — but the state has a better recent record at picking nominees.  

The last two Republican presidential nominees, Mitt Romney and John McCain, both won New Hampshire. And it is likely for this reason that Texas Sen. Ted Cruz decided to campaign vigorously in the Granite State after his win in Iowa, despite suggestions he could make deeper inroads by skipping New Hampshire and moving to South Carolina.  

With fewer evangelicals, New Hampshire is less fertile for Cruz, but the Texan likely realizes that under-performing expectations in New Hampshire could hurt him. 

Jonathan Easley in Manchester, N.H., contributed.