Republicans finding it difficult to expand along the West Coast

And that will likely smooth the reelection paths for Democratic Sens. Maria Cantwell (Wash.) and Dianne Feinstein (Calif.) in 2012.

Despite spending millions of dollars on several West Coast races this past year, Republicans didn’t pick up any Senate seats and only gained one House seat.

{mosads}Because of those results, GOP strategists expect the party to keep its focus on more realistic opportunities in the coming cycle.

Despite the lofty hopes for gains, particularly in high-profile Senate contests in California and Washington state, Republican challenges fizzled, even as the party spent millions to boost the prospects of candidates Carly Fiorina (Calif.) and Dino Rossi (Wash.). Conservative-friendly outside groups also poured in cash.

Fiorina was unable to oust Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), who cruised to reelection, and Rossi couldn’t knock off Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.). Both losses came in just about the best national political environment Republicans could have hoped for.

In the California governor’s race, self-funding Republican Meg Whitman fell woefully short, despite spending close to $150 million of her own money.

Given that the GOP has no shortage of pickup opportunities in 2012 and a relatively thin bench out West, strategists expect the party’s spending to be directed toward other areas of the country.

“I don’t know anyone in their right mind who would run against Dianne Feinstein and think they could win,” said Republican strategist Fred Davis, one of Fiorina’s top consultants this past cycle.

Davis echoes a familiar refrain among Republicans regarding the party’s Golden State prospects — if a well-funded Fiorina couldn’t come within five points of Boxer, whose numbers were among the worst in the country for an incumbent senator, defeating a much stronger incumbent like Feinstein is probably a pipe dream.

While some major question marks remain ahead of 2012, including whether President Obama’s political fortunes improve and how the Tea Party movement develops over the next two years, Davis said for the GOP to be competitive in California, “something fundamental needs to change.”

“The structural challenges are just huge for Republicans here,” said Democratic strategist Bill Carrick, a longtime Feinstein consultant. “All of the formulas and messages that work in other states just don’t scratch here.”

Carrick anticipates Feinstein will have a strong GOP challenger and noted the senator is already ramping up her fundraising operation. He’s skeptical, though, that whoever emerges on the Republican side will get any assist from the national party.

“The [National Republican Senatorial Committee] put a bunch of money in California, Washington, Nevada, Colorado, with nothing to show for it,” said Carrick. “I think they have to ask themselves, ‘How much more money are we going to sink into these Western states?’ ”

In Washington state, strategists view Cantwell as a much softer target than Murray, but the lack of a top-tier Republican challenger in a year with Obama back on the top of the ticket will likely push that race much farther down the list. Cantwell can also self-fund.

“Right now there’s just nobody obvious to run against Cantwell,” said Chris Vance, a former chairman of the Washington state GOP.
Republicans are high on state Attorney General Rob McKenna, but all signs point toward McKenna making a run for governor in two years.

Admittedly, it’s a sentiment sure to anger Tea Party activists, whom Vance said are talking about another run from ex-NFL star Clint Didier. Rossi easily defeated Didier, who was backed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, in a fairly rancorous GOP Senate primary earlier this year.

“I think a lot of people will look at 2010 and say, ‘If Rossi couldn’t beat Murray in a good year, what chance do I have?’ ” said Vance.

The NRSC says they’ll be competitive in all the 2012 Senate races.

“Two years ago, few would have imagined that Republicans would defeat Russ Feingold, or win Ohio and New Hampshire — two states which had trended blue — by 18 and 23 points, respectively.  So any speculation this far out from November 2012 is frankly a bit silly and far too premature,” said Brian Walsh, communications director of the NRSC.

But, privately, Republican strategists admit they don’t see Washington state or California sitting anywhere near the top of the target list in 2012, but unlike this past fall, the party doesn’t need competitive Senate contests in those states to challenge the Democratic majority.

Sens. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Jim Webb (D-Va.), Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) are all expected to be high on the target list.

Most of those states offer the GOP much friendlier terrain than either Washington or California, and the party only needs a net gain of four seats to retake the Senate majority.

Nevada could once again prove a challenge for the party, depending on what Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) decides. He has said he’s running for reelection, but many observers think that may change given ethics questions still swirling around the senator after revelations of an affair with a former staffer. Should he bow out, Republicans would likely look to Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.).

{mosads}Underlying most of the GOP’s statewide struggles out West, said Davis, is the divisive issue of immigration and explosive growth in the population of Hispanic voters. Despite the Republicans’ success in electing Susana Martinez and Brian Sandoval governors in New Mexico and Nevada, exit polling showed Hispanic voters breaking overwhelmingly for Boxer in California and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) in Nevada.

“If the Republican Party can somehow solve the immigration problem, in a way that doesn’t alienate conservatives and Hispanics appreciate,” said Davis, “that changes everything, especially here in California.”