Lieberman exit likely to set off spirited primary contests

Two House Democrats — Reps. Chris Murphy and Joe Courtney — are also weighing bids for the seat, with Murphy seen as the more formidable contender, according to Democratic operatives in the state. 

The thinking among Democrats is that Murphy is highly inclined toward jumping into the race, making a Courtney candidacy somewhat less likely. 

After news spread of Lieberman’s decision Tuesday, Murphy and Courtney huddled in conversation on the House floor for close to 15 minutes. Both told reporters they are still seriously considering the race, with Courtney insisting that his decision won’t hinge on anyone else’s calculations.  

“People are gonna do what they’re gonna do, but we’ll keep it civil and friendly no matter what,” Courtney said, noting that with Lieberman bowing out, the contest could attract a sizable field on both sides. 

“If we have the right candidate on the Democratic line, we will absolutely take the seat,” said Murphy. 

As for Bysiewicz, she came out of the gate early, releasing an internal poll Tuesday that showed her topping Lieberman in a three-way race and holding a sizable lead over former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon (R) in a hypothetical two-way general-election contest. 

Despite a disastrous cycle for Bysiewicz in 2010, which saw her go from presumed gubernatorial front-runner to being legally barred from running for state attorney general, she still boasts solid name recognition and Democratic strategists say she could prove formidable in 2012. 

One Democratic operative, who isn’t aligned with any potential Senate contenders, said the greatest unknown on the Democratic side is Ted Kennedy Jr., whose name has also been floated for the seat.  

The National Republican Senatorial Committee was quick to pounce Tuesday, sending out a release slamming both Bysiewicz and Murphy. 

On the Republican side, self-funder Linda McMahon, the party’s 2010 nominee against Democrat Richard Blumenthal, is still the first name out of many mouths. 

Despite spending some $50 million of her own money during her failed 2010 race, she is still seen as a credible contender among party insiders, according to one GOP strategist in the state. The early betting is that McMahon is leaning toward another run in 2012.    

Another option for the GOP is former ambassador Tom Foley, who lost the 2010 race for governor in Connecticut by a razor-thin margin to Democrat Dan Malloy. Foley started the cycle by jumping in the race for former Sen. Chris Dodd’s (D) seat but opted for the governor’s race instead after former Gov. Jodi Rell (R) announced she wouldn’t run. 

Also on the list is former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-Conn.), who lost a primary to McMahon in 2010. It’s no secret that Simmons still harbors Senate ambitions after being tossed aside in favor of McMahon by party insiders last cycle. Republicans in the state said Tuesday they wouldn’t be surprised by another Simmons bid.

While Republicans will field a viable candidate in 2012, the race is likely to lean in favor of Democrats. Given that 2012 is a presidential year, the electorate is expected to be significantly more Democratic than it was this past cycle, when Republicans were unable to capture a Senate seat despite a terrific national environment for the party.

As for Lieberman, both Democratic and Republican strategists in the state agree — he isn’t likely to play any role in the contest that will decide who succeeds him.