Rep. Ryan passes on Senate bid; heated primary battles to begin

Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) decision not to run for the Senate virtually guarantees both parties will see competitive primaries next year, with candidates expected to start jockeying for position in the coming weeks.

Strategists are putting on brave faces about their chances in Wisconsin, but both sides will be watching with trepidation as their primary races unfold.

{mosads}Ryan announced Tuesday that he intends to remain in the House in order to exert greater influence over the ongoing budget debate. “I believe continuing to serve as chairman of the House Budget Committee allows me to have a greater impact in averting this debt-fueled economic crisis than if I were to run for the United States Senate,” he said in a statement.
 
The congressman had the right of first refusal to pursue the nomination — had he decided to run, Ryan would have had a clear path to the nomination, said strategists. But with Ryan out of the race, several strong candidates are expected to enter the primary.

First on the list is former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R), whose advisers recently told senior party officials that he intended to run if Ryan didn’t.

Sen. John Cornyn (Texas), who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), told The Hill on Tuesday that he hadn’t spoken to Thompson about running, but expected to do so in the coming days. Cornyn did have a conversation with Thompson about running against former Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) in 2010, but Thompson opted not to enter that race.

Back in Wisconsin, Republican activists are talking about the Fitzgerald brothers as potential Senate contenders. State Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald (R) and state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R) are both speaking at the state Republican convention in Wisconsin Dells this weekend, where they could offer some indication about their 2012 plans.

Two other potential GOP contenders, Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen and former Senate candidate Tim Michels, won’t be attending the convention, according to a spokeswoman for the state party.

A spokesman for Thompson, who is in Japan on business, said his weekend schedule wasn’t yet finalized.

An adviser to former Rep. Mark Green, who ran for governor in 2006, said Green was a potential candidate, but not one in the “ ‘likely’ category.”

In the meantime, Democrats will have their own competitive primary to worry about.

Democracy for America, a liberal group, is trying to draft Feingold, who lost to Sen. Ron Johnson (R) by five points last year, to run again. Feingold has left the door open to a bid.

Wisconsin Democratic Reps. Ron Kind and Tammy Baldwin are considered the two likeliest contenders by Washington strategists.

Kind said he is “carefully weighing all of my options, but my main focus continues to be my work in Congress.”

“I will be giving it due consideration as I continue to talk with my family, friends and supporters in western Wisconsin and across the state,” Kind said in a statement.

An adviser to Baldwin said she is considering a run “very seriously” and expects to make a decision before the state Democratic Party’s convention in June.

“If she does decide to go in, she’s going in with the intention of winning,” the adviser said.

Former Rep. Steve Kagen (D-Wis.), who lost his reelection bid in 2010, is also considered a potential candidate, according to sources.

Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, who ran for governor last year, ruled himself out of consideration Tuesday.

Democrats have expressed confidence they would retain retiring Sen. Herb Kohl’s (D-Wis.) seat regardless of who emerges as the GOP nominee.

“They will not be able to distinguish themselves from the extreme Republican agenda that has alienated independents in the state,” Matt Canter, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a statement.

Canter singled out Thompson for his work as former President George W. Bush’s Health and Human Services secretary. “Tommy Thompson has spent the last decade in Washington doing the bidding of the Bush administration and special-interest clients at his lobbying firm, and has ignored the interests of Wisconsin families,” Canter said.

Wisconsin Democratic strategists have pointed to the controversy that erupted over Gov. Scott Walker’s (R) plan to curb the collective bargaining rights of public employee unions and cut the state’s budget as a sign of discontent with the GOP.

Moreover, there are nine recall elections of state lawmakers — six Republicans and three Democrats — in July. If the GOP lawmakers are recalled, it could spell trouble for the party in next year’s congressional elections.

Republicans say they have an opportunity to pick up the Wisconsin seat, regardless of whom the Democrats nominate.

“That candidate is going to have a very hard time answering for their party’s failed economic agenda, reckless deficit spending and relentless attempts to raise taxes on Wisconsinites in the midst of this tough economy,” Chris Bond, a spokesman for the NRSC, said in a statement.

— Molly K. Hooper contributed reporting.