New poll shows Roberts tied with independent challenger Orman

Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) is tied with independent Greg Orman in a new independent survey of the Kansas Senate race.

{mosads}The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for KSN-TV News, also shows that Democrat Chad Taylor is still drawing double-digit support, despite attempting to withdraw from the race last week — an effort to boost Orman’s chances that was blocked by the state’s Republican secretary of State, Kris Kobach.

When voters are asked who they’ll vote for if Taylor’s name is still on the ballot, despite his attempt to exit the race, Orman leads the four-way pack, taking 37 percent support among likely Democratic voters to Roberts’s 36 percent support. Taylor takes 10 percent, and libertarian Randall Batson draws 6 percent support. Eleven percent remains undecided.

That 1-point difference is within the poll’s 4.2-percent margin of error.

While Orman does pick up 43 percent, a plurality, of voters who said they planned to support Taylor before he dropped out of the race, a further 30 percent say they’ll still support Taylor, and 15 percent of Taylor voters said they’ll switch parties and back Roberts.

Orman does take a majority of Democratic voters, however, and a strong plurality, 42 percent, of independents, a sizable lead over Roberts’s 16 percent support from independents. Orman also takes a quarter of Republican voters away from Roberts, including 19 percent of conservatives, an indication Roberts is still facing dissatisfaction with the base left over from his contentious primary fight.

The poll shows further trouble for Republicans down-ballot, with GOP Gov. Sam Brownback and his running mate, Jeff Colyer, lagging Democratic gubernatorial nominee Paul Davis and running mate Jill Docking by 7 percent, with 40 percent support to Davis’s 47 percent support among likely voters.

Kobach also lags Democratic opponent Jean Schodorf, with 43 percent support to her 46 percent support.

It’s the latest indication Republicans are facing an unexpectedly tough fight to hold onto their control of a state long seen as a GOP stronghold, in part due to backlash from centrists frustrated with the conservative turn Brownback has taken during his tenure.

The survey was conducted among 555 likely Kansas voters via automated telephone poll or online questionnaire from Sept. 4-7.