Poll: Ohio Senate race only toss-up in swing states

Likely Democratic challenger Ted Strickland narrowly leads incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) in the Ohio race for Senate, according to a swing state poll released by Quinnipiac University on Thursday. 

Strickland, the former governor of the Buckeye State, leads by a 46 to 43 percent margin over Portman in what is expected to be one of the most contentious races of the 2016 cycle. 

{mosads}Strickland’s lead is just outside of the 2.9 percent margin of error, but the finding is consistent with the last iteration of the poll in August, which had him leading by a 44 to 41 percent margin. 

In the fight for control of the Senate, a new poll indicates the Ohio race is the tightest of the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. 

In the poll, Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Pat Toomey holds wide margins against both leading Democratic challengers, while Florida Democrats hold leads against potential Republican opponents. 

But Quinnipiac says the Ohio race is too close to call. 

“Conventional wisdom says Sen. Rob Portman’s 50 — 27 percent job approval rating should make him a safe bet for reelection,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “But a second term is far from a sure thing,” he added.

In Pennsylvania, Toomey leads both Katie McGinty, former chief of staff to Gov. Tom Wolf who entered the race in early August, and Rep. Joe Sestak, who was narrowly defeated by Toomey in 2010. The poll shows the Republican incumbent ahead of Sestak by a 49 to 34 percent margin, and ahead of McGinty by a 51 to 31 percent margin. 

Wolf endorsed McGinty last week. John Fetterman, a mayor in suburban Pittsburgh, also recently announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination and was not tested in the latest poll.

In Florida, however, Democrats appear to have the early advantage in the race for the seat being vacated by GOP primary candidate Sen. Marco Rubio. 

Although many voters in Florida still have no opinion on the race, the two top Democratic candidates both poll well against the leading Republicans in the field.

Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Fla.) bests Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) by a 37 to 30 percent margin, and he leads Republican Lt. Gov. Carlos López-Cantera by a 37 to 29 percent margin.

Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) fares similarly well, topping DeSantis by a 37 to 31 percent margin and López-Cantera by a slightly closer 35 to 32 percent margin.

Although President Obama carried Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania in his successful 2012 reelection bid, his second term has so far been unpopular in the crucial swing states.

The poll finds that voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania are dissatisfied with Obama’s job in office by a 54 to 42 percent margin, and Floridians view him unfavorably by a 51 to 45 percent margin.

Republicans are defending 24 seats in the Senate in 2016, and Democrats only need to flip five to regain the majority in the upper chamber.

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted from Sept. 25 to Oct. 5. It surveyed 1,173 voters in Florida, 1,180 voters in Ohio, and 1,049 voters in Pennsylvania. The margin of error in both Florida and Ohio is 2.9 percent, while it is 3 percent in Pennsylvania.