Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) has a big lead over Rep. Donna Edwards (D-Md.) ahead of Tuesday’s Democratic Senate primary in Maryland, a new poll finds.
A Monmouth University survey released Thursday shows Van Hollen taking 52 percent support, with Edwards at 36 percent.
{mosads}Most polls have shown a closer race, with Van Hollen only ahead by 6.7 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average entering Thursday.
The two Democrats are fighting to replace retiring Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.).
The Monmouth survey found voters in the state are deeply divided along race and gender lines.
Van Hollen, a white male, takes 73 percent support from white voters and 60 percent support among men.
Edwards, a black woman, takes 62 percent support from black voters. She trails Van Hollen among women, but only by 5 points, within the poll’s margin of error.
The race has also cut along establishment and grassroots lines.
Van Hollen, the ranking member of the House Budget Committee, has the support of Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid (Nev.). Edwards, meanwhile, has the backing of several liberal progressive groups in the state.
“Van Hollen was pegged as the early favorite in this race, but he has faced a tough challenge from Edwards,” Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray said. “His length of service in the House and reputation as a dealmaker seems to have helped him build a strong lead.”
Edwards has sought to frame Van Hollen as weak on issues important to progressives like gun control and Social Security.
But the Monmouth poll found that voters in Maryland think both candidates will fight equally for progressive values.
Both candidates have strong favorability ratings, but Van Hollen is viewed in a more positive light.
Sixty percent of Maryland Democrats have a favorable view of him, and only 4 percent view him negatively.
Fifty percent have a favorable view of Edwards, compared to 14 percent who view her negatively.
The Monmouth survey of 300 likely Democratic primary voters in Maryland has a 5.7 percentage point margin of error.