Poll finds Romney would beat Obama in New Hampshire

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) would defeat President Obama in New Hampshire by eight points if the election were held today, according to a new poll released Friday. 

The results show a clear edge for Romney in the first-in-the-nation primary state, where he is looking to build a stronghold for a presidential bid. 

Forty-seven percent of New Hampshire voters said they would vote for Romney if he were the GOP presidential candidate, as opposed to 39 percent who would choose Obama, according to the poll conducted by the Nelson A. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College.

No other potential GOP candidate approached Romney’s level of support. Obama leads Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour by 19 points, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty by 16 points, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin by 27 points, Rep. Ron Paul (Texas) by 20 points and businessman Donald Trump by 22 points. 

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is the only candidate who comes within single digits, trailing only by eight. At 37 percent, Huckabee is the only candidate who draws more than 30 percent support from voters against Obama.

The president is struggling with New Hampshire voters, as he is in national polls.

Forty-three percent in New Hampshire view him unfavorably, compared to the 37 percent who view him favorably. Voters in the state see the economy in decline: 39 percent view the economy as “excellent,” “good” or “fair,” down from 47 percent last year.

Dartmouth professor Ronald Shaiko, who administered the poll, said
that independents and undeclared voters in New Hampshire prefer Romney
over Obama (44-36 percent), which could make a difference on primary day due to state
rules permitting open primary voting. 

“In that case, New Hampshire is the perfect kind of state for Romney,” he said.

Shaiko noted that independents or undeclared voters, who make up 43 percent of the New Hampshire electorate, could show up in greater numbers to the 2012 GOP primary than they did in 2008, when there were competitive primaries for both parties.

The president’s national approval ratings have fallen sharply since he announced his reelection campaign in early April. A Gallup survey released last week pegged Obama’s approval rating at 41 percent, a tie for the lowest level recorded so far during his administration. 

Some pollsters say the flagging economy and the upswing in gas prices explain the dip in Obama’s popularity. 

The New Hampshire poll surveyed 426 voters between April 11-14. The margin of error was 4.8 percentage points.

—This post was updated at 11:30 a.m.