The primary challengers just keep on coming, with the additions this week of Minuteman Founder Chris Simcox running against Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton possibly challenging Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) and Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien lining up a run against Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.).
Four incumbents lost in primaries last year and several others came close or were held to 50 percent or lower, so blood is in the water. But some of the most serious primary challenges to emerge so far have actually come against members who haven’t exactly been primary-prone – people like Kanjorski and Reps. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.) and Sander Levin (D-Mich.).
So who else is at risk of a serious intra-party challenge? Here’s a scorecard:
-Already taking shape: Cohen, Kanjorski, Boyd, Levin, and Reps. Dan Burton (R-Ind.), Henry Brown (R-S.C.), Bob Inglis (R-S.C.)
-Ripe: Reps. Phil Roe (R-Tenn.), Don Young (R-Alaska), Carolyn Kilpatrick (D-Mich.), Laura Richardson (D-Calif.), Jane Harman (D-Calif.)
Roe and Young both face potential rematches in races they won narrowly. Kilpatrick took a measly 39 percent in 2008, and Richardson’s financial and real estate problems didn’t come to light until it was too late to primary her in 2008. Harman is a special case: she has never been a friend of liberals or House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), she yielded 38 percent to an poorly funded primary opponent in 2006, and now she has to deal with some serious accusations about influence-peddling and AIPAC.
-Worth keeping an eye on: Reps. Ed Towns (D-N.Y.), Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.), Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio), Pete Visclosky (D-Ind.)
Towns, Lamborn and Kucinich have all taken 50 percent or less in recent primaries, but Towns’s and Lamborn’s opponents couldn’t get much traction last year, and Kucinich probably isn’t as vulnerable with his fleeting presidential campaigns further in the rearview. Visclosky could be in trouble thanks to the PMA Group scandal, as he is a top recipient of its money and a top PMA earmarker. He recently asked permission to use campaign funds for his legal fees – never a good sign.
-Sliver of a chance: Reps. Jared Polis (D-Colo.), Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah), John Fleming (R-La.), Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-Mo.), Lynn Jenkins (R-Kan.), Joe Wilson (R-S.C.)
The first five are freshmen coming off tough primaries where feelings could still be hard, though its difficult to see former Rep. Jim Ryun (R-Kan.) trying again versus Jenkins; Wilson was weak in the general election, and there appears to be something in the water in the Palmetto State, with free-for-alls forming for all of the other three GOP-held House seats.
-Have proved themselves and should rest easy: Reps. Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.), Andre Carson (D-Ind.), John Barrow (D-Ga.), Ralph Hall (R-Texas), Ron Paul (R-Texas)
Lipinski and Carson both sailed in tough primaries last year, and it’s doubtful that any serious opposition shows up to face Barrow or either of the Texans, who turned away nominal opponents in 2008.
-Aaron Blake