Alaska Dem Pollster: Stevens’s Race Is Over

Sen. Ted Stevens’s conviction on corruption charges Monday destroys his chances at re-election, according to a prominent Democratic-leaning pollster in Alaska.

Ivan Moore said that the Alaska Republican’s race is now “categorically over.” Stevens had trailed Democrat Mark Begich in all polls taken over the last month except for one. His guilty verdict on seven federal felony counts will only increase Begich’s lead, Moore said.

The bigger question is how the conviction of Stevens, a seven-term senator, affects other races in Alaska, he said.

“This is the kind of earthquake that makes the ground very, very shaky for Republicans across the board,” the pollster said.

The Alaskan who could suffer the most is Rep. Don Young (Alaska), who faces his own federal corruption probe and has trailed Democrat Ethan Berkowitz in all public polls taken so far, according to Moore. Stevens, Alaska’s third senator ever, has been popular longer than Young, whom Alaskans had expected to be first to fall, Moore said. It was Young who spent thousands of his own campaign’s funds to pay for lawyers instead of Stevens.

“Well, if Ted goes down, Don Young can’t be far behind,” the pollster said.

Stevens’s conviction could also lead to a tightening in the presidential race. Moore predicted that John McCain (R-Ariz.), aided by his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R), would win the state over Barack Obama by a double-digit margin.

“There’s potential of that closing a bit, but I don’t think to the point where Obama will win,” he said.

The degree of the impact will partly depend on the shock felt by voters over the conviction, Moore said. But the pollster acknowledged that it’s hard to predict the effect of an event like this. Stevens, after all, defied expectations by winning his party’s nomination in August while under indictment, Moore said.

“We all said he’s toast in the primary,” Moore said. “Then he kicked ass in the primary. There’s no precedent for something like this.”