Intrade Likes Holbrooke for Sec. of State, Napolitano for AG

As speculation runs rampant about President-elect Barack Obama’s open cabinet slots, bettors on Intrade‘s political prediction markets are favoring former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Richard Holbrooke and Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano (D) for top jobs in Obama’s new administration.

Holbrooke is fetching the site’s highest bids for secretary of state, at an average of $17.10. Clustered close behind Holbrooke are Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) at $16.40, Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) at $15, and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) at $14.45.

Napolitano sits at the top of a less crowded pack for attorney general. She leads with an average bid of $28.20, while former Deputy Attorney General Eric Holder, who helped head Obama’s VP search team, is fetching an average bid of $20. Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) is next closest at $8.

Intrade’s bettors can bid between $0 and $100 on political outcomes. If the outcome happens, bets pay out at $100; if not, they pay out at $0.

Bidding averages indicate consensus on percent probability, as bettors choose the dollar value of their picks based on how likely they think those picks are to be correct. Holbrooke’s $17.10 average, for instance, shows that Intrade’s bettors think he has a 17.1 percent probability of becoming secretary of state.

As far as other top executive jobs go, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers ($41.60) is edging out Federal Reserve Bank of New York President and CEO Timothy Geithner ($41.30) to return to his old job. Former Deputy National Security Adviser James Steinberg ($45) and Defense Secretary Robert Gates ($65) are heavy favorites for national security adviser and defense secretary.