Analysis of Puerto Rico’s potential federal representation

Puerto Rico is a non-incorporated territory of the United States, floating in a sort of a difficult-to-define political limbo labeled by most as colonial. The island currently has only one non-voting representative in the Congress and lacks the power to vote for U.S. president. Many advocates of statehood claim that with the five representatives and two senators Puerto Rico will  acquire in Congress, the island would have the necessary say-so and tools to influence federal policy and climb out of its current situation.

Puerto Rico’s current non-voting seat in the House of Representatives – known as the resident commissioner – is infamous for its embarrassing low productivity. Current Resident Commissioner Pedro Pierluisi, for example, is among the top legislators in terms of absenteeism. Despite being a second term representative, Pierluisi has produced no enacted laws. Nonetheless, it can be presumed that with voting powers would come an increased presence in Washington.

{mosads}Considering that House membership is capped at 435 members, a number of current states would have to lose representation to “make room” for Puerto Rico. According to the Congressional Research Service, states that would have missed out on or lost seats in the House during the 2010 redistribution include California, Florida, Minnesota, Texas, and Washington. House seats would be deducted from these four Democrat-leaning and one Republican-leaning state.

It has long been presumed that Puerto Rico’s legislators would be staunch Democrats with three times more islanders having participated in the 2008 Democratic primaries than in the 2012 Republican primaries. Eight of the last ten resident commissioners sent to Washington from Puerto Rico were also Democrats, though one switched to the Republican Party after completing his term. Nevertheless, Democrat predominance is not absolute: of the top five vote-getting at-large state legislators during the 2012 Puerto Rican state legislature elections the top two vote-getters were aligned with the Republican Party.

Nor are said tendencies absolute indicators of potential voting habits. Voter participation, enrollment and political alliances with stateside parties depend heavily on political status and personal politics as opposed to traditional left and right ideologies. This explains how Puerto Ricans can simultaneously elect a Republican as governor and send a Democrat to Washington, as they did in the 2008 elections.

Nor is there any guarantee that Puerto Rico’s congress members  would see eye-to-eye on matters as Puerto Rico’s politicians already reveal a lack of consensus on pressing issues for the island.  For example, Representative Jennifer González – one of the top vote getters of 2012 – opposes the extension of Chapter 9 benefits to Puerto Rico.  Former Resident Commissioner and Governor Carlos Romero also opposes exempting Puerto Rico from expensive U.S. maritime laws. Even if Puerto Rico’s legislators were to vote in block, it is extremely rare for congressional votes to pass or fail by five or less votes in the House or two votes in the Senate. Despite this, legislators surely contribute to the legislative process beyond simple voting and pork barrel dollars should increase for Puerto Rico.

The island’s electoral college on the other hand would provide a block of seven electoral votes unless Puerto Rico opted for an alternative system such as Nebraska or Maine. Notwithstanding, only one U.S. presidential election in the last century – George Bush vs. Al Gore – has been decided by less than seven electoral votes. In said election, Puerto Rico would have had eight electoral votes and, if they went for Gore, it would have given him the win by four votes.

Though the addition of Puerto Rico as the 51st state of the Union would grant the island seven federal legislators, those legislators would do little to budge the overall direction of the 537-strong U.S. Congress. Statehood would have given Puerto Rico a decisive voice in the 2000 Presidential election and the potential to now and then sway major legislation. Nevertheless, there is little indication that local politicians will reach consensus on major issues that affect Puerto Rico, thus making a seven-legislator Puerto Rico voting block unlikely. Advocates of statehood have yet to address how additional congressional earmarks and rare decisive congressional votes would decrease deficit spending, increase government efficiency, and improve borrowing habits at home. For the most part, discourse of a powerful island caucus with the power to drag Puerto Rico out of its delicate social, economic and fiscal crisis is farfetched.

Gallardo is a municipal legislator from Puerto Rico. He has an M.P.A. from Valdosta State University and a Juris Doctor from the University of Puerto Rico. You can connect with him on Twitter or Facebook at @LuisGallardoPR or luisogallardo@gmail.com