The McClellan Flip

General David Petraeus, through his own self promotion and
a meager field of viable candidates, has been touted by certain Republican
interests as a potential candidate for president in 2012. President Obama may
feel he scotched that possibly by demoting Petraeus to commander of the Afghan
War. “Obama’s War” has become “Petraeus and Obama’s War.”
The President must be gloating over what he thinks is a deft political move.

However, he shouldn’t gloat too much. In fact, he may have
sowed the seeds of his own destruction. Obama should be parsing Petraeus’
recent media-blitz statements very carefully. The General is raising doubts
about the efficacy of a draw down next August, a position the President is
politically committed to. The General is also touting modest progress in the
face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Making the draw down an issue in 2011 is an ideal
opportunity for Petraeus to dislodge himself from owning the Afghan War and at
the same time to thrust himself into the fray as a Republican Party candidate.

Petraeus could contend that a draw down in 2011 is
premature and jeopardizes victory. He could then resign in protest over Obama’s
policy, appearing to courageously taking the high ground. He would then argue
in the campaign that we can win in Afghanistan if only we had a real
Commander-and-Chief that had the experience, patience and courage to persevere.

The image of America turning tail and retreating from
Afghanistan like the Russians did is more humiliation than the American public
can take. The campaign slogan “we can win” should play well with the
electorate though they are disenchanted with the war. It will appeal to
American triumphalism. Senator John McCain and a good many influential
Republicans still feel we could have won in Vietnam if only we had persisted.
Their support of Petraeus will be an attempt to reverse their distorted view of
history.

This scenario is so logical for an ambitious politician
like Petraeus that it’s hard to think he will pass it up. The economy will
still be in the doldrums while Obama will suffer the ignominy of appearing to
be a feckless military leader. The military industrial complex that supported
Obama in 08 will readily desert him for a popular military leader on a white
horse who is prepared to fight to win and thereby vindicate the nation’s honor,
something very appealing to America’s militarized culture.

Mike Gravel is the former Democratic U.S. Senator from Alaska.

Crossposted from The Huffington Post.