The real impact of political ads

It’s only February, but we are already on track to set a new record for political ad spending in 2016. In fact, Wells Fargo Securities estimates that we’ll spend $6 billion in campaign advertising over the next eleven months.

The climbing dollar figure simply illustrates the reality that politicians and political consultants are struggling to understand how to engage and motivate voters.  The tools and techniques they are used to just don’t apply anymore.

{mosads}It’s like the old joke about a couple that parks their car on a dark street.  The man is driving and when he steps out of the car he drops his keys.  He then crosses over the street to the one light that is working and gets on the ground to look for the lost keys.  His wife asks, “What are you doing over there?  You dropped your keys near the car.”  He responds, “I know, but the light is really good over here!”

The moral of the story is that very often people do what is easy and comfortable, even if they know it’s pointless.  Sometimes doing something productive to address a difficult problem is just too hard and uncomfortable.

We are seeing this play out in political media. Earlier in our country’s history, voters were compelled by things like speeches (usually by the candidate’s supporters and not the candidate), rallies with food and drink, and huge get-out-the-vote efforts greased by “street money” and readily available liquor.  (Even George Washington was not above ensuring lots of booze for supporters when he ran for the House of Burgesses in Virginia – and he lost his first race!)  As we moved into the 20th century, railway whistle-stop tours and radio advertising became the norm.  And then in the 1950’s, all of that came to an end with the advent of television and telephone polling.  While speeches and rallies still occurred, they really just served the greater cause of TV visuals.  Even the Republican and Democratic political conventions evolved into extended campaign commercials.

As a result, several generations of politicians and political consultants grew up thinking that political campaigns were really only about TV.  And polling became just a means to refine TV commercials.  The entirety of someone’s campaign for national or statewide office became about having more expensive TV commercials than the other candidate, and raising more money so that you can have more expensive commercials. This system worked great for everyone in the political consulting, advertising and polling businesses, because they got a percentage off the top.  It even worked well for politicians because they at least had clear rules to follow and they could see “progress” in their campaigns by seeing themselves in their own commercials.

But a funny thing happened with the advent of the Internet and cellphones – people don’t watch TV like they used to and polling against them with any accuracy has become a whole lot harder.  Expensive TV ads still have a place, but they are declining in value at a rapid clip.  Moreover, because everyone is now so experienced at the TV game – and all of the ads are reviewed by focus groups who respond to the same things (dark clouds, ominous voices) – ads come out looking so similar that it is even hard for someone who is paying attention to tell which ad goes with which candidate.  Politicians are raising more and spending more in order to achieve less and less with TV ads.

Why do so many politicians remain TV-obsessed?  Because the alternative of figuring out how to motivate voters without traditional TV is just too hard and uncomfortable – particularly for all of the consultants who make big money off of the ads.  They would rather look for voters where “the light is really good.”

The smart politicians are now the ones looking to spend their campaign dollars more wisely and impact voters more.  Sometimes that is viral video, or crazy tweets or earned media.  Other times it is revisiting print and digital media sources that have been overlooked and underappreciated. A prime example of this is newspaper media, where Nielsen Scarborough data shows that 70 percent of regular voters read newspaper media – in mobile, digital or print form – in a given week. This statistic holds true regardless of political party. Additional research by Frank M. Magid Associates even shows that consumers trust newspaper ads more than any other form of advertising. This “trustworthy” factor may be especially important to those working to win America’s vote for office.

So this year, when the interminable political ads start rolling across your screens, understand that you are looking at the last gasps of a system that just can’t figure out where to look for its keys.

Chavern is president and CEO of the Newspaper Association of America.