Default isn’t an option – for debt or Democrats

Following the 2010 election, we surveyed 1,000 people who voted for Obama in 2008, but either stayed home (the Droppers) or voted for the GOP in 2010 (the Switchers). Our findings suggest a few considerations Democrats must keep in mind during this budget fight.

Democrats need to be active in the deficit debate. Some have compared this upcoming fight to 2005, when President Bush attempted to privatize Social Security. Democrats were successful in digging in and running a campaign based solely on being against Bush’s plan. Today voters are displaying unprecedented sensitivity to deficits, creating a different political environment. 

Among the Switchers, the two biggest reasons for leaving the Democrats in 2010 were the handling of the economy and budget deficits. Indeed, 64 percent of Switchers did not feel that Democrats had a plan to get our economy back on track, 76 percent did not think the Democrats were serious about reducing the deficit, and 78 percent did not believe that Democrats were responsible with tax payer dollars.

With Droppers and Switchers expressing such skepticism about Democrats on one of the key issues for 2012, Democrats risk ultimately losing the debate if they fail to actively offer a positive deficit reduction vision of their own. They need to do more than just oppose bad ideas to reclaim the support of defectors from the Obama coalition.

Democrats need to be prepared to compromise. In addition to being deficit sensitive, we also know that Switchers are craving cooperation from leaders in Washington. These voters, who ultimately will decide the elections for the foreseeable future, are rational centrists.

Not only do over two-thirds of Switchers want the President and Republicans in Congress to compromise, a majority of these voters also backs a balanced approach to the deficit. 55 percent of Switchers and 57 percent of Droppers believe that that the best way to address the budget deficit is through a combination of spending cuts and tax increases. They strongly favor budget cuts, but at the same time, 57 percent of Switchers and 67 percent of Droppers support raising taxes on households that make more than $250,000.

These voters are not driven by ideology, and as a result they are looking for results and will reward whichever party is seen as interested in being reasonable and keeping an open mind to compromise. Democrats can and should win this “battle of reasonableness” by insisting that all options – from tax increases and Pentagon spending to Democratic sacred cows in the realm of entitlements – be put on the table.
 
Democrats can reach the “swinging” middle. For Democrats, the ongoing deficit debate is rife with challenges, but also presents a big opportunity – a chance to recapture voters who left the Obama coalition but aren’t sold on Republican rule. Although the decisions of Droppers and Switchers meant big losses for Democrats, their choices on Election Day weren’t a ringing Republican endorsement. Just 20 percent said they voted for the Republicans because they had better ideas than the Democrats.
          
Clearly, the Democratic Party needs to win these voters back in 2012, and the deficit debate can give them a chance to do so. Forcefully advocating for serious, consensus-driven deficit reduction can help Democrats reconnect with the election-deciding middle by changing the view that they are not serious about reducing budget deficits and are not responsible with tax payer dollars.
 
The looming vote to raise the debt ceiling has created a greater sense of urgency and focused public attention on the deficit debate in Washington. Democrats have the opportunity to use this moment to connect with critical swing voters by engaging with a positive vision, winning the “battle of reasonableness” by making sensible compromises, and working for a solution that holds true to American values. If they take what may seem to be the easier, safer path by digging in their heels and just saying no, their political fortunes may hit another type of ceiling in 2012.
 
Ryan McConaghy is the director of the Economic Program at Third Way. Stefan Hankin is president of Lincoln Park Strategies.