Here are some facts to illustrate the puzzle: foreign lobbying is on the rise while the US share of the world economy declines. From 1999 to 2011, the US share of Global GDP declined from 28% to 25%. At the same time, the number of foreign clients of registered lobbyists increased by 130%, according to author’s calculations based on data field under the Lobbying Disclosure Act of 1995 and Foreign Agents Registration Act of 1938. In contrast, for last 13 years the total number of entities which hire lobbyists increased just by 53%. As a result, the share of foreign clients of lobbyists among all lobbyists
increased from 7% to 11%.
{mosads}Moreover, the nature of foreign lobbying in the U.S. has changed. Private lobbying is increasing in numbers while foreign government lobbying is in decline. As a result, in 1999 the ratio of private vs. governmental foreign clients of lobbyists was 16% to 84%; in 2010 we saw the opposite picture, at 71% to 29%, respectively. Consequently, the foreign lobbying agenda in the U.S. has changed. At the forefront are free trade agreements (South Korea, Panama, Columbia), trade disputes (China, Brazil), opposition complaints (Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Russia), while such issues as financial aid, military cooperation (Bahrain, Egypt, Pakistan, Israel, Yemen, etc), and government image (Saudi Arabia, Syria etc.) are taking a back seat.
How to explain all this? Why is foreign lobbying growing so much faster than domestic? Probably globalization is the reason. Why is foreign private lobbying on the rise, while the number of foreign government lobbyists remains unchanged? There are some rising powers out there, like Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and their governments do not seek to solve all their troubles in the U.S. However, the U.S. is still a major economy, if not still the major economy. As a result foreign corporations, banks, and trade associations have a lot to ask from the US government: trade deals, Export Import Bank loan guarantees, etc.
The policy implications of this change are enormous. The world is less and less interested in influencing the U.S. foreign policy as such. Global political and economical power centers are shifting gradually because BRICS growth rates are higher than those in the U.S. and the EU. For instance, from 1999 to 2011 the China’s share in world economy increased from 3% to 8%. Nevertheless, private foreign lobbying is on the rise. The U.S. is trying to respond to growing diversity of foreign lobbying and, consequently, its agenda by the concept of public diplomacy.
Dr. Kostyaev is a senior fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow.