Libya’s Gadhafi on the brink of collapse

The ability of external pressure to influence developments in Libya is extremely limited. Tunisia is largely dependent upon European markets, as is Egypt upon on U.S. aid, both economic and military. The Gadhafi regime has enjoyed greater self-determination at home and abroad due to vast energy reserves and the ability to effectively manipulate a relatively small population of five million. U.S. diplomatic hands remain largely tied. Loosening them will require concerted multilateral action

Accounting for roughly 2 percent of global oil output, Libyan instability and interruption to inevitably rattles international markets. With the largest share of global at 25 percent and the prime destination for Libyan oil, the European Union will bear the initial brunt further exacerbating its current internal difficulties. Additional turmoil will have enormous implications for the broader, and volatile, world economy which is still struggling to recover from global recession. Also, the threat of unleashing refugees on Europe’s southern shores provides an additional colossal challenge to limited existing limited resources.   

When compared to Tunisia and Egypt, Libya is a relatively closed society disconnected to the outside world. International media currently struggles to access internal developments. It relies on communication via ordinary citizens which can often complicate accuracy. Despite the presence of international oil workers, Libya remains further isolated than its neighbors since it never experienced the tourism which flourished in Egypt and Tunisia. 

The role of the army was decisive in both Tunisia and Egypt, where it had considerable public respect as an institution of authority. It is also fairly inclusive and representative of the broad socio-economic structure. In Libya, the army is simply an extension of the regime. The presence of foreign mercenaries devalues it. Past use of lethal force further undermines its credibility. Should mounting massacres result, U.N.-sanctioned humanitarian intervention remains an option. However, diplomatic machinations at the Security Council coupled by historic precedents of the immediate past may complicate the need for effective action. 

The popular uprising in Libya has not been led by organized opposition, which has yet to emerge. Over the years, the regime continuously cracked down on the Islamist movement but never dealt it a fatal blow. Should the regime fall, it may prove the most organized opposition, at least in the short-term. Political activists in exile and other internal dissidents will require time to organize effectively. 

Together with shrewd use of resources to exploit others, Mr. Gadhafi’s uncanny ability to re-invent himself has also guaranteed his survival over four decades. His guises have included Arab nationalist, advocate of African unity, terrorist-freedom fighter and promoter of rapproachment with the U.S. Cooperation on the Lockerbie case, collaboration on counter-terrorism and, above all, renunciation of Libya’s nuclear program sealed a closer U.S.-Libya relationship. It led to the lifting of U.N. sanctions and re-admission into the international mainstream. This was accompanied by fierce international competition for access to Libya’s resources. From the outside, all looked rosy for Mr. Gadhafi. Yet, on the inside the kettle was brewing. 

Unlike the former Tunisian and Egyptian leaders, Mr. Gadhafi will not retire quietly. His regime has entered his final act. Ultimately, it presents no enduring vision or future, only brute force, coercion and manipulation. Should it survive this tragic episode, the regime will have only temporarily delayed its inevitable end.  

Marco Vicenzino provides geo-political risk analysis and regular commentary on leading global media outlets. He is director of the Global Strategy Project.