Bin Laden’s Arab spring

Wherever there is a crisis, instability or a power vacuum, extremist elements will regularly surface to pursue their radical agenda. This clearly and drastically goes beyond the aspirations of the overwhelming majority. The extremists must not be allowed to hijack the region’s revolutions.

In Libya, seasoned elements with battle experience from Iraq and Afghanistan have emerged. In Syria, home-grown radical elements and the porous border with Iraq provide considerable threats. In Egypt, some escaped from jails during the turmoil of the initial phase of Egypt’s revolution. 

They include veterans of Egypt’s internal war against its own extremists during the 1980s and ‘90s. One notable veteran is Ayman al-Zawahiri, until now al Qaeda’s second-in-command. He was defeated by Egypt’s security services and fled to Afghanistan where he joined forces with bin Laden to form al Qaeda.

Instability in Yemen continues to provide al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) with a haven to operate regionally and beyond. The failed bombing attempt on a U.S.-bound airliner on Christmas day 2009 and shooting spree at a U.S. army base in Texas serve as reminders. Bin Laden’s assassination will accelerate the growing international prominence of AQAP’s leader, U.S.-born Anwar al-Awlaki.

Instability across much of North Africa provides the local affiliate, al Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM), a reincarnation of previous radical outfits, with a new lease on life beyond the standard kidnappings of recent years.

In Iraq, jihadist pressure ebbs and flows as political dithering by Iraq’s elected leaders creates a most convenient void for radicals.

As growing instability grips Jordan, many extremists wait patiently for the appropriate opportunity to strike and improve upon the spectacular simultaneous attacks of 2005 in Amman.

In Gaza, the recent killing of an Italian activist by jihadists highlights an often under-reported but ongoing and festering battle within the fundamentalist camp. Islamist Hamas quickly eliminated the radical elements, too extreme for their own fundamentalist tastes. In Morocco, the recent Marrakech bombing provided a reminder of radicalism’s continuing presence even in more stable Arab states.

In death, bin Laden will obviously be a martyr. In life, he enjoyed legendary and mythical status in many quarters for nearly a generation. He reached his apex on 9/11. The attack’s magnitude, outcome and consequences went beyond expectations. 

Despite his waning appeal in recent years, bin Laden inspired generations of radicals and established an immense precedent and the highest standards for any extremist to aspire to. He effectively voiced the grievances of the masses whose corrupt governments failed to address. 

But bin Laden did not provide an attractive political alternative. The Taliban regime of 1990’s Afghanistan proved brutal. Rejection of extremist rule in parts of Iraq’s Sunni heartland was exploited by U.S. forces to launch its surge in 2007.

Considering bin Laden’s death and 9/11’s approaching tenth anniversary, what is required is a renewed and sustained commitment to the relentless pursuit of bin Laden’s ideological heirs and like-minded factions throughout the world. Indispensable elements in this collective mission include international coordination and cooperation, constantly harnessing the necessary resources, clear public understanding of what’s at stake and eternal vigilance. Overall, it remains a long-term struggle.

Marco Vicenzino, a geopolitical risk expert, directs the Global Strategy Project.