Turkey must lead in Syrian crisis

Due to Middle East turmoil, Erdogan’s regional policy of “zero problems” is no longer sustainable. A multiple-problem solving policy requiring greater multi-tasking must emerge. It demands more reactive fire-fighting skills. Turkey must seize the diplomatic initiative as the central external player in the current crisis, even employing use of force if required.

Simultaneously, the international community must provide all necessary support. Growing regional instability also means increased burden-sharing. Some states must assume greater responsibility according to crisis. Geography, resources, influence, national interests and other core factors will play decisive roles.

In the ongoing democracy versus security debate surrounding the Arab Spring, states will continue to publicly advocate the democracy argument in principle. In the long-term, greater democracy may ensure greater stability. However, there is a considerable distance between the short-term and long-term which is plagued by uncertainty and unpredictability. In the short-term, the security argument and immediate strategic interests are likely to prevail in practice. Accusations of inconsistency and incompatibility are unavoidable. Necessity will inevitably dictate policy and action.

In Syria, and other regional hotspots, Turkey and other key players must make tough strategic decisions and hard moral choices. Eventually, Turkey may be forced to take sides. As violence increasingly targets Syria’s Sunni-majority, Turkey has become more vocal. Some officials have publicly made specific reference to Sunni massacres. This challenges Turkey’s current diplomatic ability to remain above the regional sectarian fray. It may provoke a greater shift toward the Sunni bloc in the growing Sunni-Shiite rivalry for regional dominance. In particular, this could involve more contentious relations with the theocratic Shiite regime in Iran, with which Turkey has shared a stable border since the 1600s.

Internally, Turkey is not immune from increasing regional sectarian tensions threatening the Arab Spring. Erdogan’s government is no stranger to stirring the sectarian pot. Polarizing rhetoric has not only targeted political and ideological opponents, but minorities, including Turkey’s Alevis. Greater restraint must be exercised. For short-term political gain, Erdogan threatens to trigger divisive forces simmering below the surface.

Difficulties generated by the Arab Spring will inevitably shape Turkey’s role as a leading regional power. Tough decisions lie ahead. Erdogan must rise to the challenges at home and abroad.

Marco Vicenzino directs the Global Strategy Project and provides geo-political risk analysis for corporations and regular commentary for global media outlets. He can be contacted at msv@globalsp.org