Obama did not cause the child migrant crisis

Is President Obama responsible for the huge surge of unaccompanied children illegally crossing the southern border? Many say “yes,” and point to the “Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals” executive order  (DACA) as the culprit. Newly released data from the Border Patrol, however, reveals that the surge in illegal immigration occurred well before DACA.

When DACA was announced on June 15, 2012, the crisis was already in full swing. Fiscal year 2012, which began in October 2011, saw a 50 percent increase in the number of unaccompanied children crossing the border illegally from October to May compared with the same period in FY2011.

{mosads}The situation was so dire in April 2012 that children were being housed at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio. In May, Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) wrote to the president requesting additional efforts to control the situation. In June, Mexican authorities caught twice as many Central American minors traveling through Mexico than in 2011.

The children were also not motivated to come north by the promise of DACA. Obama repeatedly claimed to lack authority to stop deportations, and the prospect of executive action had dropped off the media’s radar. The announcement in June shocked many high-ranking government officials. It is difficult to believe that destitute kids in Central America were better informed than federal officials and media outlets in Washington.

Nor did DACA worsen the escalating crisis. The 5 months after June 2012 actually saw fewer children come to the border than in the prior 5 months. FY2013 saw virtually the same percentage increase in unaccompanied child migration as FY2012.

It is important to consider this surge in context. Despite recent media headlines, fewerminors—accompanied and unaccompanied—entered illegally at the height of the crisis in 2012 than in 2004. Child migration simply returned to earlier norms. 

Today’s experience is unique not because children are coming, but because fewer adults are coming. Since 2009, the percentage of illegal entries by adults has fallen from 92 percent to 78 percent. 

As the United States has added more agents and technology to the border, the costs and risks of entering have increased. Rather than not coming at all, adults cross once and stay for increasingly longer periods. Since 1996, the likelihood that a new arrival will return home within a year has dropped from 50 percent to less than 1 percent.

Instead of circulating back and forth the border as they once did, many workers today enter and send for their families after finding a job to pay for their transit. This “stage migration” plays into the hands of smugglers who have responded to lower demand from adults by promising children guaranteed access even if they are caught.

Obama’s explanation for the crisis is little better than those offered by his critics. He argues that mandatory removal hearings – often backlogged for years – encourage child migration, as do smugglers who take advantage of the law. But smugglers only began to target children after entry for adults became more difficult.

Rather than simply oppose DACA, Congress should create worker visas that would allow migrants to circulate between their home countries and the United States. This would discourage migrants from setting up permanently and, later, relocating the entire family north. That’s what the successful Bracero program did in the 1950s. Knowing that they could return, migrant workers returned home each year.

Republicans are right to criticize the president for sidestepping Congress when he implemented DACA. Even so, Congress should focus on solving the problems with the immigration system, not on stoking fears that further reforms will cause a border rush. 

Bier of the Niskanen Center is a leading immigration policy analyst in Washington, D.C. (www.niskanencenter.org)