US-Sunni estrangement opens Pandora’s box

Sunni powers see President Obama as fixating on rapprochement with Iran and renouncing the role of guaranteeing the Middle East balance of power.  Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, supported by other Sunni countries, are seeking to roll back Iranian hegemonism, while combating ISIS.  Obama ultimately is undermining U.S. policy.  Sunni countries are enforcing redlines, without consulting, and often in conflict with, the U.S.  

At May’s Camp David summit, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) sought the Carter Doctrine’s revival, aimed at Iran.  They wanted Obama to support Syrian no-fly zones.  However, Saudi King Salman and three other GCC leaders boycotted, sending lower-level officials.  They viewed the summit as an Obama “photo op.”  Washington had ruled out written security guarantees and a no-fly zone.

{mosads}Obama already needlessly had angered them by stating that the U.S. has limited security interests in the Middle East.  He mused that GCC leaders had more to fear from their own people than Iran and that Iran’s regional proxy warfare was “manageable.”   

The GCC received no concessions, beyond vague reassurances and an offer to aid with regional missile defense.  Saudi Foreign Minister Al-Jubeir subtly belittled the last, stating the system would take years to implement and face daunting obstacles.  Crown Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz unsurprisingly declined to endorse US-Iran nuclear negotiations, making the summit an embarrassment for Obama.

The Saudis and their allies view the U.S. as abandoning them for an entente with Iran, facilitating Iran’s drive for regional dominance and leaving Iran as a threshold nuclear power.  They believe – arguably, correctly – that Obama is making too many unilateral concessions in nuclear talks, is not demanding a tough enough inspection regime and will fund regional Iranian proxies with eased sanctions.

Saudi Arabia and the GCC view Obama as weak and allied with Iran in Iraq and Syria.  They logically fear Iranian encirclement.  Saudi columnist Faisal J. Abbas asked, “Mr. President, if Iranian misbehavior is ‘manageable,’ then why [aren’t you] managing it?  Did President Obama not hear that [Tehran ] boasted about occupying four Arab capitals and there is a new Persian empire.”   

Obama unsurprisingly is reaping the whirlwind.  Saudi Arabia and its allies are improvising a counteroffensive against Iran and seeking to compensate for a “flawed” U.S. ISIS strategy, sometimes placing them in conflict with Obama.

In late March, a Saudi coalition began airstrikes against pro-Iran Houthi rebels, who seized Yemen’s capital of Sanaa.  Riyadh gave Washington nearly no notice.  Saudi and allied Special Forces battled Houthis in the port of Aden.  Salman is angered by Obama’s failure to provide targeting data and irresolute defense of regional waters.  Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Gen Ali Jafari lent credence to Saudi claims of Iranian aggression, demanding retribution.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey united non-ISIS jihadist rebels behind Syrian al-Qaeda (AQ) affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (JN), to the extreme detriment of U.S. interests.  With their aid, JN-led coalitions seized Idlib province, threaten the Mediterranean coast, and control much of the corridor from northern Idlib to the border with Israel and Jordan.  JN-led forces threaten supply lines to Lebanon, with Israel paradoxically aligned with Jordan in supporting JN against Assad.

Saudi Arabia is taking the fight to Iran and ISIS.  It gave the Lebanese Army $3 billion in aid to counter pro-Iran Lebanese Hezbollah.  Jubilant Lebanese Sunni leader Saad Hariri called for Sunni airstrikes against Assad, the IRGC-Quds Force (IRGC-QF), Hezbollah, and pro-Iran militias in Syria.  If the U.S.-Sunni estrangement worsens that is remotely plausible.  Jordan is exploring the possibility of arming Syrian Sunni tribesmen.

Saudi Arabia is aiding Egypt against ISIS in the Sinai, ignoring U.S. tensions with Egypt.  Critical of the West for abandoning Libya, it is supporting Egyptian and UAE airstrikes against ISIS in Libya.  Along with Qatar and Turkey, the Saudis are pressuring the jihadist government in Tripoli and the rival Tobruk government to fight ISIS.

British World War I Prime Minister Lloyd George said, “Wars teach us not to love our enemies, but to hate our allies.”  Sunni powers do not hate the U.S., but feel embittered, lessening Obama’s leverage.

Their actions bolster U.S. interests in the Sinai and Libya.  In Syria, however, Sunni support for JN is disastrous, leaving al-Qaeda and ISIS as the alternatives to Assad.  Saudi airstrikes in Yemen empowered both AQ and ISIS.  Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia and Sunni countries, believing Obama does not “have their back,” increasingly will enforce their own red lines without consulting the U.S.  Columnist Raghida Dergham wrote that the U.S. strategy “leads to more strife, spawning Shiite and Sunni extremism equally.”

Davis is a retired intelligence analyst, who worked with the Army Special Operations Command, Defense Intelligence Agency, Office of National Drug Control Policy and CIA.