Syrian descent into Hell

President Obama has achieved none of his objectives in Syria.  ISIS has the momentum, being ascendant in nearly half of Syria.  Obama’s refusal to aid moderate rebels led to their emasculation, with al-Qaeda (AQ) affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) dominating non-ISIS opposition fighters.  Obama appears to view Bashar al-Assad as the only alternative to the jihadists.  However, Assad and his pro-Iran government have been as barbaric as ISIS.  Obama continues to ignore his former red lines, as Syria spirals downward.

Syria is descending into Hell.  To quote Churchill, “a long night of barbarism is descending, unbroken even by a star of hope.”  Syrians are in Dante’s “outlying region of Hell, where souls … must run in a futile chase after a black banner.”  That banner is the banner of evil.  It is the banner of a Sunni jidhadism reminiscent of the Dark Ages and the banner of Iranian imperialism and Shiite sectarianism. 

{mosads}The statistics are telling.  The death toll in the Syrian civil war approaches a quarter of a million.  The conflict has displaced millions of Syrians, perhaps one-fourth of the population.

Obama’s low op-tempo bombings gave Kurds tenuous control of much of Syrian Kurdistan.  However, the bombings did not degrade, let alone destroy, ISIS.  ISIS has captured Palmyra and surrounding oil fields.  It has seized a nearby Army base, showing it was a match for the Syrian military.   

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates ISIS controls half of Syria.  It might be more accurate to say ISIS controls, or can maneuver freely in, half the country.  ISIS dominates eastern Syria and is challenging Kurdish defensive lines in the northeast.  It is battling Assad and JN for control of Homs and Hama provinces, the Syrian heartland.  ISIS infiltrated Damascus’s suburbs and is in a three-way battle with Assad and JN for the border with Lebanon.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, frustrated with Obama’s refusal to back moderate rebels, united non-ISIS Sunni Salafist rebels behind JN.  This coalition is ascendant in the northwest and threatens coastal Latakia province.  It is vying for dominance in a corridor stretching from Idlib in the north through countryside around Hama, Homs and Damascus into the south.     

The JN coalition has modern, heavy weaponry, having seized military bases.  It has tanks, BMP infantry vehicles, rockets, anti-aircraft guns, and anti-tank missiles.  JN has the support of four foreign AQ-affiliated contingents, including the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP).  A TIP emir, killed by a drone, once commanded AQ fighters along the Pakistani-Afghan border.

Obama appears to view Assad as the only alternative to ISIS and JN, despite his 2011 vow to oust him.  The U.S. has made indirect overtures to Damascus to negotiate.  Assad is not a viable alternative.  The tide of war has turned.  Fighting has given momentum to ISIS and JN, leaving Assad with no capability to win and terrorists with no reason to negotiate. 

Jordan’s King Abdullah stated, “Assad created a monster, not only in unleashing his family’s characteristic oppression and bloodlust … but in deliberately allowing ISIS and other extreme Islamist groups to thrive at the expense of more moderate [rebels].  It meant that the only groups who could … finish Assad off were ones the West was invested in defeating.”

Assad is an Iranian puppet, with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF), Lebanese Hezbollah, and pro-Iran militias from as far away as Afghanistan and Pakistan propping him up.  Iran-backed Syrian security forces engage in large-scale starvation, torture and murder; employ barrel and chlorine bombs; and carry out sectarian cleansings.  The Organization for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons alleges Assad never disclosed ten chemical weapon sites.  Smuggled photos document the horrific brutality of Assad’s prisons. 

Obama’s Syria strategy is a failure.  An already horrific situation has gotten worse.  The U.S. president outraged the Syrian opposition and Sunni world, effectively renouncing his 2011 commitment to seek Assad’s ouster.  Syria, Iran, and Russia made a mockery of his boast that he would rid Syria of chemical weapons.  ISIS is stronger, not weaker, despite the U.S. goal of degrading and destroying it.  Syria has become an AQ bastion and potential terrorist staging ground.

Iran controls the Syrian government and security strategy.  Obama is acquiescing in Iran’s hegemonism in Syria, for fear he might derail nuclear talks, his coveted legacy.  If he does not stand up to Iran in Syria and elsewhere while enforcing red lines in these talks, his legacy will be a pyrrhic victory.

Davis is a retired intelligence analyst, who worked with the Army Special Operations Command, Defense Intelligence Agency, Office of National Drug Control Policy and CIA.