2030: A European odyssey

The recent EU report, “Global trends to 2030“, is a new step towards U.S. practice, with the presentation to the incoming European Commission president of a prospective analysis looking 20 years or so into the global affairs crystal ball.

While giving well-aired views some statistical ballast – the demise of the post-Cold-War Pax Americana, the increasing role of technology, the explosion of the middle class – what is most enlightening is the potential for geopolitical, economic and social destabilisation over the next two decades.

{mosads}The prospect of fragmentation of liberal democracies, market economies and common rules seems to move away and out of reach by 2030. A geopolitical revolution fuelled by pressure from emerging states and declining Western influence could undermine the multilateral system and its values, established for over 70 years. A realignment between Russia, China and some middle powers is possible. Systemic ruptures and a proliferation of regional conflicts – including nuclear – cannot be ruled out.

Economic and social globalisation, as driven by the G3 – EU, US, China – will always advance, driven by a dramatic acceleration in technological convergence. It will radically transform economies around data, artificial intelligence and bioscience. The effects will be undeniably positive, especially in terms of economic growth, but they will also mask a darker side, that of a potentially massive destruction of jobs, the need for an overhaul of the welfare system and the fight against new technological monopolies.

The result of such complexities will present an opportunity for self-empowerment. More than ever, individuals will be free to make choices – economic, political, social -and exercise new freedoms thanks to new technologies. The great challenge of the coming two decades will be to channel this intelligence and energy into a democratic collective project in Europe, and beyond.

The EU will face three key challenges.

– On a geopolitical level, destabilisation of the wider European neighbourhood – from the Sahel to the Arctic via Ukraine and Syria – and US tactical withdrawal from the European peninsula, will increase pressure for the creation of a real common defence capability; in short, the emergence of an independent and responsible European hard power.

– The economic equation is similarly complex, with growth prospects currently too low to absorb significant public debt and reduce expected levels of unemployment significantly by 2030. A new economic vision is required to achieve debt-free growth that favours long term innovation and investment, with accompanying structural reforms to mobilise savings, sustainably.

– Lastly, the democratic rebalancing will need to reflect the shift in power to the regional level – closer to the citizen – to lend greater legitimacy on matters of economy and defence. The same is true of social protection system reforms to mitigate new inequalities stemming from the technological revolution.

Despite these challenges, the report’s conclusion is optimistic: the EU has a rich pool of assets to draw from, but success will require a step change in willingness to embrace the reforms to prepare for tomorrow’s realities. The words of Seneca still resonate, some two thousand years on: it is not because things are difficult that we dare not but that’s because we do not dare that things are difficult.

Peters is a former adviser of the president of the European Commission and former deputy head of Cabinet to Peter Mandelson, European Commissioner for Trade. The views expressed in this article do not represent those of the European Commission.